When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2023 · Seattle Seahawks · pick one to list those games
38% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 40% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 13 games
2023 · Seattle Seahawks · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
SEA -3 | 47.5 | 3192641 | U | ARI Q3 Lead lost |
21–20 |
2023 · Week 17 |
SEA -4 | 40.5 | 7314153 | Q3 | PIT Q1 | 30–23 |
2023 · Week 16 |
SEA -3 | 42.5 | 0131637 | U | Push | 20–17 |
2023 · Week 15 |
PHI -5 | 46 | 7132737 | U | SEA Q4 Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 14 |
SF -14 | 45.5 | 17243744 | U | SEA Q1 | 16–28 |
2023 · Week 13 |
DAL -9.5 | 47.5 | 17415576 | Q3 | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
35–41 |
2023 · Week 12 |
SF -7 | 43 | 10273744 | Q4 | SF Q2 | 31–13 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LAR -2 | 46 | 7202333 | U | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
16–17 |
2023 · Week 10 |
SEA -6 | 44 | 9182855 | Q4 | WSH Q1 Late over |
26–29 |
2023 · Week 9 |
BAL -6 | 44 | 0203340 | U | BAL Q2 | 3–37 |
2023 · Week 8 |
SEA -4 | 38.5 | 24313744 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
20–24 |
2023 · Week 7 |
SEA -9.5 | 43.5 | 10242730 | U | SEA Q4 Late cover flip |
10–20 |
2023 · Week 6 |
CIN -1.5 | 45.5 | 14242730 | U | CIN Q4 | 13–17 |
SEA
ARI
PIT
TEN
PHI
SF
DAL
LAR
WSH
BAL
CLE
CINWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 38% 5
Q2 15% 2
Q3 8% 1
Q4 23% 3
OT 0% 0
Push 15% 2
The team leading at halftime won 67% and covered 58% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 58% and covered 58% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.