When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2023 · Miami Dolphins · pick one to list those games
46% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.
All 13 games
2023 · Miami Dolphins · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
KC -4.5 | 43.5 | 7232633 | U | KC Q1 | 7–26 |
2023 · Week 18 |
BUF -2.5 | 48 | 0212135 | U | BUF Q4 | 21–14 |
2023 · Week 17 |
BAL -3 | 47 | 17414875 | Q3 | BAL Q2 | 19–56 |
2023 · Week 16 |
MIA -1.5 | 48.5 | 10202942 | U | MIA Q2 | 20–22 |
2023 · Week 15 |
MIA -7 | 35.5 | 7242730 | U | MIA Q2 | 0–30 |
2023 · Week 14 |
MIA -13.5 | 44.5 | 7172355 | Q4 | TEN Q1 Late over Lead lost |
28–27 |
2023 · Week 13 |
MIA -8.5 | 49.5 | 17385360 | Q3 | MIA Q1 | 45–15 |
2023 · Week 12 |
MIA -8.5 | 40 | 3232647 | Q4 | MIA Q2 Late over |
34–13 |
2023 · Week 11 |
MIA -13.5 | 44 | 17273333 | U | LV Q1 | 13–20 |
2023 · Week 9 |
MIA -1 | 51 | 7213535 | U | KC Q1 | 14–21 |
2023 · Week 8 |
MIA -7.5 | 46.5 | 14243448 | Q4 | MIA Q2 Late cover flip Late over |
17–31 |
2023 · Week 7 |
PHI -3.5 | 51.5 | 6274148 | U | PHI Q2 | 17–31 |
2023 · Week 6 |
MIA -13.5 | 46.5 | 14354263 | Q4 | MIA Q3 | 21–42 |
MIA
KC
BUF
BAL
DAL
NYJ
TEN
WSH
LV
NE
PHI
CARWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 38% 5
Q2 46% 6
Q3 8% 1
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 92% and covered 85% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 85% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 50% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.