When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2023 · Los Angeles Rams · pick one to list those games
54% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 14% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 31% of games.
All 13 games
2023 · Los Angeles Rams · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
DET -3 | 53 | 17384447 | U | LAR Q4 | 23–24 |
2023 · Week 18 |
SF -5.5 | 40 | 14273341 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
21–20 |
2023 · Week 17 |
LAR -6 | 43.5 | 7243651 | Q4 | NYG Q2 Late cover flip |
26–25 |
2023 · Week 16 |
LAR -4 | 45.5 | 7243452 | Q4 | LAR Q1 Late over |
22–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
LAR -6.5 | 48.5 | 3132748 | U | LAR Q2 | 20–28 |
2023 · Week 14 |
BAL -7.5 | 42 | 1037426268 | Q4 | LAR Q1 | 31–37 |
2023 · Week 13 |
LAR -3.5 | 39.5 | 17233355 | Q4 | LAR Q3 Late cover flip Late over |
19–36 |
2023 · Week 12 |
LAR -3 | 45 | 15293251 | Q4 | LAR Q2 | 37–14 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LAR -2 | 46 | 7202333 | U | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
16–17 |
2023 · Week 9 |
GB -3 | 39.5 | 0101323 | U | GB Q2 | 3–20 |
2023 · Week 8 |
DAL -7 | 44.5 | 20425363 | Q3 | DAL Q1 | 20–43 |
2023 · Week 7 |
LAR -3.5 | 43.5 | 0122741 | U | PIT Q4 | 24–17 |
2023 · Week 6 |
LAR -7.5 | 47.5 | 6152535 | U | LAR Q4 | 9–26 |
LAR
DET
SF
NYG
NO
WSH
BAL
CLE
ARI
SEA
GB
DAL
PITWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 31% 4
Q2 31% 4
Q3 8% 1
Q4 31% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 62% and covered 62% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 69% and covered 69% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.