When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2023 · Detroit Lions · pick one to list those games
67% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 10% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.
All 15 games
2023 · Detroit Lions · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
SF -7.5 | 53.5 | 14314865 | Q4 | DET Q1 Late over |
31–34 |
2023 · Postseason |
DET -6 | 50 | 6203454 | Q4 | DET Q4 Late over |
23–31 |
2023 · Postseason |
DET -3 | 53 | 17384447 | U | LAR Q4 | 23–24 |
2023 · Week 18 |
DET -3.5 | 47.5 | 13193350 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 20–30 |
2023 · Week 17 |
DAL -4.5 | 53 | 10102039 | U | DET Q1 | 19–20 |
2023 · Week 16 |
DET -2.5 | 48 | 14314454 | Q4 | DET Q4 | 30–24 |
2023 · Week 15 |
DET -5.5 | 49 | 0213859 | Q4 | DET Q2 | 17–42 |
2023 · Week 14 |
DET -3 | 44.5 | 10233241 | U | CHI Q3 | 13–28 |
2023 · Week 13 |
DET -4 | 48 | 21314861 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 33–28 |
2023 · Week 12 |
DET -8.5 | 47 | 26294351 | Q4 | GB Q1 Late over |
29–22 |
2023 · Week 11 |
DET -8 | 48 | 7243457 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
26–31 |
2023 · Week 10 |
DET -2.5 | 48 | 13415579 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 41–38 |
2023 · Week 8 |
DET -7 | 46 | 3233740 | U | DET Q2 | 14–26 |
2023 · Week 7 |
BAL -3.5 | 43.5 | 14283544 | Q4 | BAL Q1 | 6–38 |
2023 · Week 6 |
DET -3.5 | 42.5 | 3132326 | U | DET Q2 | 20–6 |
DET
SF
TB
LAR
MIN
DAL
DEN
CHI
NO
GB
LAC
LV
BALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 53% 8
Q2 20% 3
Q3 7% 1
Q4 20% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 86% and covered 71% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 92% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.