When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2023 · Chicago Bears · pick one to list those games
42% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.
All 13 games
2023 · Chicago Bears · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
GB -2.5 | 46 | 3132026 | U | GB Q3 | 9–17 |
2023 · Week 17 |
CHI -2.5 | 39.5 | 7283754 | Q4 | CHI Q1 | 17–37 |
2023 · Week 16 |
CHI -4.5 | 42 | 7283443 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over |
16–27 |
2023 · Week 15 |
CLE -2.5 | 38 | 0142437 | U | CLE Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 14 |
DET -3 | 44.5 | 10233241 | U | CHI Q3 | 13–28 |
2023 · Week 12 |
MIN -3 | 43 | 06922 | U | CHI Q1 Lead lost |
12–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
DET -8 | 48 | 7243457 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
26–31 |
2023 · Week 10 |
CHI -3.5 | 38 | 10192629 | U | CAR Q4 | 13–16 |
2023 · Week 9 |
NO -6.5 | 41 | 14283441 | P | NO Q4 | 17–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
LAC -9.5 | 46 | 14313743 | U | LAC Q1 | 13–30 |
2023 · Week 7 |
LV -1.5 | 37.5 | 7172442 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over |
12–30 |
2023 · Week 6 |
MIN -3.5 | 43.5 | 3182532 | U | MIN Q2 | 19–13 |
2023 · Week 5 |
WSH -6 | 45 | 10304160 | Q4 | CHI Q1 | 40–20 |
CHI
GB
ATL
ARI
CLE
DET
MIN
CAR
NO
LAC
LV
WSHWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 54% 7
Q2 8% 1
Q3 15% 2
Q4 23% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 80% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 83% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.