When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2023 · Arizona Cardinals · pick one to list those games
46% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.
All 13 games
2023 · Arizona Cardinals · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
SEA -3 | 47.5 | 3192641 | U | ARI Q3 Lead lost |
21–20 |
2023 · Week 17 |
PHI -12.5 | 48 | 10274266 | Q4 | ARI Q3 | 35–31 |
2023 · Week 16 |
CHI -4.5 | 42 | 7283443 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over |
16–27 |
2023 · Week 15 |
SF -12 | 48 | 21345174 | Q3 | SF Q3 | 45–29 |
2023 · Week 13 |
PIT -6 | 41 | 6132034 | U | ARI Q1 | 24–10 |
2023 · Week 12 |
LAR -3 | 45 | 15293251 | Q4 | LAR Q2 | 37–14 |
2023 · Week 11 |
HOU -5.5 | 48 | 17313737 | U | ARI Q3 | 16–21 |
2023 · Week 10 |
ATL -2 | 43.5 | 3263948 | Q4 | ARI Q3 Late over |
23–25 |
2023 · Week 9 |
CLE -7.5 | 38.5 | 0132027 | U | CLE Q2 | 0–27 |
2023 · Week 8 |
BAL -9.5 | 45 | 14212855 | Q4 | ARI Q4 Late over |
31–24 |
2023 · Week 7 |
SEA -9.5 | 43.5 | 10242730 | U | SEA Q4 Late cover flip |
10–20 |
2023 · Week 6 |
LAR -7.5 | 47.5 | 6152535 | U | LAR Q4 | 9–26 |
2023 · Week 1 |
WSH -6 | 40 | 10232636 | U | ARI Q1 | 16–20 |
SEA
ARI
PHI
CHI
SF
PIT
LAR
HOU
ATL
CLE
BAL
WSHWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 23% 3
Q2 15% 2
Q3 38% 5
Q4 23% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 69% and covered 54% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 91% and covered 82% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.