When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2025 · USC · pick one to list those games
54% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.
All 13 games
2025 · USC · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
USC -4.5 | 56.5 | 327354857 | OT | TCU Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–30 |
2025 · Week 14 |
USC -21.5 | 59.5 | 7172439 | U | UCLA Q1 | 10–29 |
2025 · Week 13 |
ORE -12.5 | 60.5 | 21425669 | Q4 | ORE Q2 | 27–42 |
2025 · Week 12 |
USC -6.5 | 48.5 | 7314047 | U | IOWA Q1 | 21–26 |
2025 · Week 11 |
USC -14.5 | 54.5 | 14354555 | Q4 | USC Q4 Late over |
17–38 |
2025 · Week 10 |
USC -4.5 | 58.5 | 7202838 | U | NEB Q1 | 21–17 |
2025 · Week 8 |
ND -10.5 | 60.5 | 17275158 | U | USC Q1 | 24–34 |
2025 · Week 7 |
USC -2.5 | 57.5 | 7212844 | U | USC Q1 | 13–31 |
2025 · Week 5 |
USC -6.5 | 62.5 | 14244166 | Q4 | ILL Q1 Late over |
32–34 |
2025 · Week 4 |
USC -18.5 | 55.5 | 17345576 | Q4 | MSU Q1 | 31–45 |
2025 · Week 3 |
USC -20.5 | 59.5 | 3204050 | U | PUR Q1 | 33–17 |
2025 · Week 2 |
USC -28.5 | 62.5 | 27446579 | Q3 | USC Q4 | 20–59 |
2025 · Week 1 |
USC -36.5 | 60.5 | 17526986 | Q3 | USC Q3 | 13–73 |
USC
TCU
UCLA
ORE
IOWA
NU
NEB
ND
MICH
ILL
MSU
PUR
GASO
MOSTWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 62% 8
Q2 8% 1
Q3 8% 1
Q4 23% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 77% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 58% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 40% 2 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.