When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2024 · USC · pick one to list those games
54% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 46% of games.
All 13 games
2024 · USC · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
TA&M -3.5 | 56.5 | 7143866 | Q4 | USC Q4 Late over Lead lost |
35–31 |
2024 · Week 14 |
ND -6.5 | 52.5 | 7285684 | Q3 | ND Q3 | 49–35 |
2024 · Week 13 |
USC -4.5 | 52.5 | 6122232 | U | USC Q4 Late cover flip |
19–13 |
2024 · Week 12 |
USC -6.5 | 50.5 | 14284148 | U | USC Q4 Late cover flip |
20–28 |
2024 · Week 10 |
USC -2.5 | 55.5 | 10274147 | U | WASH Q1 | 21–26 |
2024 · Week 9 |
USC -13.5 | 55.5 | 17406262 | Q3 | USC Q2 | 20–42 |
2024 · Week 8 |
USC -6.5 | 55.5 | 7283557 | Q4 | MD Q4 Late over Lead lost |
28–29 |
2024 · Week 7 |
PSU -3.5 | 51.5 | 1026436063 | Q4 | USC Q1 Lead lost |
33–30 |
2024 · Week 6 |
USC -9.5 | 44.5 | 3202741 | U | MINN Q1 | 17–24 |
2024 · Week 5 |
USC -13.5 | 49.5 | 14314559 | Q4 | USC Q4 | 21–38 |
2024 · Week 4 |
USC -4.5 | 43.5 | 7173751 | Q4 | MICH Q1 Lead lost |
24–27 |
2024 · Week 2 |
USC -30.5 | 62.5 | 10273448 | U | USC Q3 | 0–48 |
2024 · Week 1 |
LSU -3.5 | 67.5 | 0203047 | U | USC Q4 | 27–20 |
USC
TA&M
ND
UCLA
NEB
WASH
RUTG
MD
PSU
MINN
WIS
MICH
USU
LSUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 31% 4
Q2 8% 1
Q3 15% 2
Q4 46% 6
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 63% and covered 75% of 8 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 46% and covered 54% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.