When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2024 · Boise State · pick one to list those games
46% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 31% of games.
All 13 games
2024 · Boise State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
PSU -11.5 | 54.5 | 14243845 | U | PSU Q4 Late cover flip |
31–14 |
2024 · Week 15 |
BOIS -3.5 | 57.5 | 7212128 | U | BOIS Q1 | 7–21 |
2024 · Week 14 |
BOIS -17.5 | 58.5 | 14283752 | U | ORST Q1 | 18–34 |
2024 · Week 13 |
BOIS -25.5 | 54.5 | 10202030 | U | WYO Q1 | 17–13 |
2024 · Week 12 |
BOIS -14.5 | 61.5 | 7284963 | Q4 | BOIS Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
42–21 |
2024 · Week 11 |
BOIS -23.5 | 60.5 | 21283549 | U | NEV Q1 | 21–28 |
2024 · Week 10 |
BOIS -24.5 | 57.5 | 21455280 | Q4 | BOIS Q2 | 24–56 |
2024 · Week 9 |
BOIS -3.5 | 62.5 | 13304753 | U | BOIS Q4 | 29–24 |
2024 · Week 7 |
BOIS -20.5 | 60.5 | 10202035 | U | BOIS Q4 Late cover flip |
28–7 |
2024 · Week 6 |
BOIS -27.5 | 66.5 | 17667992 | Q3 | BOIS Q2 | 30–62 |
2024 · Week 5 |
BOIS -6.5 | 65.5 | 14273469 | Q4 | BOIS Q2 Late over |
24–45 |
2024 · Week 2 |
ORE -17.5 | 60.5 | 10344771 | Q4 | BOIS Q1 | 34–37 |
2024 · Week 1 |
BOIS -12.5 | 57.5 | 144466101 | Q3 | GASO Q2 Late cover flip |
56–45 |
PSU
BOIS
UNLV
ORST
WYO
SJSU
NEV
SDSU
HAW
USU
WSU
ORE
GASOWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 38% 5
Q2 31% 4
Q3 0% 0
Q4 31% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 90% and covered 80% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 58% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 6 | 17% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.