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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

62 games · 2023 · Week 1 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games62100%By halftime12%In Q31016%In Q42032%In OT12%Stayed under3048%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands58%Over cashed813%Leader lost the game00%
52% went over. Of the 32 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 34% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

All 62 games

2023 · Week 1 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 1
 RUTG -5 39 7172431 U RUTG Q1 7–24
IDST @ SDSU
2023 · Week 1
 SDSU -34.5 51 13334264 Q4 IDST Q1 28–36
NAU @ ARIZ
2023 · Week 1
 ARIZ -28.5 61 7173841 U ARIZ Q3 3–38
WIU @ NMSU
2023 · Week 1
 NMSU -21 55 6345879 Q3 NMSU Q4 21–58
UIW @ UTEP
2023 · Week 1
 UTEP -7.5 57.5 14283542 U UTEP Q4 14–28
NWST @ UL
2023 · Week 1
 UL -35 54.5 10273451 U NWST Q1 13–38
2023 · Week 1
 VT -16 48 2264753 Q4 VT Q4 17–36
2023 · Week 1
 UNC -2.5 63.5 14314548 U UNC Q2 31–17
SEMO @ KSU
2023 · Week 1
 KSU -28.5 56.5 7353845 U KSU Q2 0–45
2023 · Week 1
 TA&M -37.5 48.5 7425262 Q3 TA&M Q4 10–52
AAMU @ VAN
2023 · Week 1
 VAN -35 53.5 8153660 Q4 AAMU Q1
Late cover flip
 13–47
2023 · Week 1
 WSU -9.5 54 10203274 Q4 WSU Q2 50–24
2023 · Week 1
 UTSA -2.5 59.5 14172431 U HOU Q1 14–17
CARK @ OKST
2023 · Week 1
 OKST -25.5 59.5 7132040 U CARK Q1 13–27
BCU @ MEM
2023 · Week 1
 MEM -49 59.5 17355670 Q4 BCU Q1
Late cover flip
 14–56
ALCN @ USM
2023 · Week 1
 USM -24 47.5 24344454 Q4 USM Q3
Late cover flip
 14–40
SFA @ TROY
2023 · Week 1
 TROY -26 48 24516178 Q2 SFA Q1 30–48
ME @ FIU
2023 · Week 1
 FIU -15 46 10202626 U ME Q1 12–14
UTM @ UGA
2023 · Week 1
 UGA -50 56.5 7173155 U UTM Q1 7–48
SCST @ CLT
2023 · Week 1
 CLT -24 44.5 0202027 U SCST Q1 3–24
MONM @ FAU
2023 · Week 1
 FAU -26.5 56 21425662 Q4 MONM Q4 20–42
CIT @ GASO
2023 · Week 1
 GASO -34 53.5 14243134 U Push 0–34
BUCK @ JMU
2023 · Week 1
 JMU -47 53.5 3202741 U BUCK Q1 3–38
ALB @ MRSH
2023 · Week 1
 MRSH -22 47.5 033138 U ALB Q1 17–21
SELA @ MSST
2023 · Week 1
 MSST -31.5 59.5 3273455 U MSST Q4 7–48
COLG @ SYR
2023 · Week 1
 SYR -40 49.5 23376565 Q3 SYR Q3 0–65
BRY @ UNLV
2023 · Week 1
 UNLV -16.5 66 17244858 U UNLV Q1 14–44
2023 · Week 1
 OSU -27.5 60 7132326 U IU Q1 23–3
2023 · Week 1
 TEX -34.5 59 10194047 U RICE Q1 10–37
TNST @ ND
2023 · Week 1
 ND -48.5 55 10385259 Q4 ND Q4 3–56
2023 · Week 1
 WIS -29 52.5 14243855 Q4 BUFF Q1 17–38
2023 · Week 1
 AUB -39 53.5 17385973 Q3 AUB Q3 14–59
TOW @ MD
2023 · Week 1
 MD -38.5 55.5 21314144 U TOW Q1 6–38
WOF @ PITT
2023 · Week 1
 PITT -37.5 49.5 7283852 Q4 PITT Q3
Late over
 7–45
EKU @ CIN
2023 · Week 1
 CIN -21.5 57.5 21496279 Q3 CIN Q2 13–66
GWEB @ APP
2023 · Week 1
 APP -22.5 51 7245569 Q3 GWEB Q1 24–45
PRST @ ORE
2023 · Week 1
 ORE -48 65.5 29577488 Q3 ORE Q3 7–81
MER @ MISS
2023 · Week 1
 MISS -35 59 35457380 Q3 MISS Q3 7–73
ETSU @ JXST
2023 · Week 1
 JXST -20 55 17244552 U JXST Q3 3–49
UNI @ ISU
2023 · Week 1
 ISU -7 40.5 14233339 U ISU Q1 9–30
WCU @ ARK
2023 · Week 1
 ARK -38 61 24385269 Q4 ARK Q4
Late over
 13–56
RMU @ AFA
2023 · Week 1
 AFA -47 51.5 14283549 U RMU Q1 7–42
2023 · Week 1
 MICH -34 51.5 7233033 U ECU Q1 3–30
2023 · Week 1
 TENN -28 58.5 7244562 Q4 TENN Q4 13–49
2023 · Week 1
 IOWA -24 43.5 14202338 U USU Q1 14–24
2023 · Week 1
 UK -25 49 10305158 Q3 UK Q4
Late cover flip
 14–44
2023 · Week 1
 BC -8 50 07214251 OT NIU Q1
Late over
 27–24
LIU @ OHIO
2023 · Week 1
 OHIO -34.5 58 3203037 U LIU Q1 10–27
2023 · Week 1
 STAN -9.5 58.5 7313761 Q4 STAN Q2
Late over
 37–24
2023 · Week 1
 KU -32.5 60.5 14273765 Q4 MOST Q1
Late over
 17–48
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 62

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 56% 35
Q2 8% 5
Q3 16% 10
Q4 18% 11
OT 0% 0
Push 2% 1
The team leading at halftime won 98% and covered 50% of 60 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 98% and covered 52% of 62 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over11100% 11
1–34100% 4
4–73100% 3
8–10475% 3
11–14757% 4
15–17617% 1
18–21813% 1
22+1926% 5
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.