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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

UNLV ✕

When did they go over?

14 games · 2023 · UNLV · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games14100%By halftime00%In Q3214%In Q4750%In OT00%Stayed under536%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed17%Leader lost the game00%
64% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 14% of games.

All 14 games

2023 · UNLV · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 KU -7.5 65 14385285 Q4 KU Q4 49–36
2023 · Week 14
 BOIS -2 61.5 21486164 Q4 BOIS Q1
Late over
 44–20
2023 · Week 13
 UNLV -1 58.5 24304768 Q4 SJSU Q1 37–31
2023 · Week 12
 AFA -3 47 14415558 Q3 UNLV Q3 31–27
2023 · Week 11
 UNLV -3 48.5 21354248 U UNLV Q1 14–34
2023 · Week 10
 UNLV -14.5 58 14425670 Q4 UNLV Q2 56–14
2023 · Week 9
 FRES -10.5 56 14244855 U UNLV Q4 24–31
2023 · Week 8
 UNLV -6.5 60 0162948 U CSU Q1 23–25
2023 · Week 7
 UNLV -7.5 51.5 21355272 Q3 UNLV Q2 45–27
2023 · Week 5
 UNLV -10.5 58 7234064 Q4 UNLV Q2 20–44
2023 · Week 4
 UTEP -1 49.5 21424973 Q4 UNLV Q1 45–28
2023 · Week 3
 VAN -4.5 56.5 10374777 Q4 UNLV Q2 37–40
2023 · Week 2
 MICH -38 57.5 7213542 U UNLV Q1 7–35
BRY @ UNLV
2023 · Week 1
 UNLV -16.5 66 17244858 U UNLV Q1 14–44
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 7
Q2 29% 4
Q3 7% 1
Q4 14% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 86% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 79% of 14 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–33100% 3
4–710% 0
8–10250% 1
11–142100% 2
18–21250% 1
22+20% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.