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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Texas ✕

When did they go over?

13 games · 2023 · Texas · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games13100%By halftime00%In Q318%In Q4431%In OT00%Stayed under862%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed00%Leader lost the game00%
38% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 33% of games.

All 13 games

2023 · Texas · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 TEX -3.5 61.5 14425268 Q4 WASH Q1 31–37
2023 · Week 14
 TEX -14.5 57.5 28495670 Q4 TEX Q2 21–49
2023 · Week 13
 TEX -15.5 53.5 17335764 Q3 TEX Q2 7–57
2023 · Week 12
 TEX -7 44.5 392442 U TEX Q4 26–16
2023 · Week 11
 TEX -13 56 13323255 U TCU Q4 29–26
2023 · Week 10
 TEX -3 50 1024416063 Q4 Push 30–33
2023 · Week 9
 TEX -20.5 48.5 14242741 U TEX Q4 6–35
2023 · Week 8
 TEX -23.5 60.5 14354555 U HOU Q1 31–24
2023 · Week 5
 TEX -15.5 61.5 10204054 U TEX Q4 14–40
2023 · Week 4
 TEX -17.5 49.5 10344444 U TEX Q2 38–6
2023 · Week 3
 TEX -30 48.5 10172041 U WYO Q1 10–31
2023 · Week 2
 ALA -7 53.5 3192958 Q4 TEX Q1 34–24
2023 · Week 1
 TEX -34.5 59 10194047 U RICE Q1 10–37
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 38% 5
Q2 23% 3
Q3 0% 0
Q4 31% 4
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 58% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 58% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over1100% 1
1–31100% 1
4–710% 0
8–102100% 2
15–1710% 0
18–2120% 0
22+520% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.