When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2023 · New Mexico State · pick one to list those games
29% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 14% of games.
All 14 games
2023 · New Mexico State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
NMSU -3 | 52 | 10203047 | U | FRES Q1 | 10–37 |
2023 · Week 14 |
LIB -10 | 58 | 14427084 | Q3 | LIB Q4 | 35–49 |
2023 · Week 13 |
JXST -2.5 | 48 | 14202037 | U | NMSU Q1 | 17–20 |
2023 · Week 12 |
AUB -25 | 47.5 | 7172441 | U | NMSU Q1 | 31–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
WKU -4.5 | 54 | 17384567 | Q4 | NMSU Q2 Late over |
38–29 |
2023 · Week 10 |
NMSU -3 | 55.5 | 0172020 | U | NMSU Q3 | 7–13 |
2023 · Week 9 |
LT -3 | 55 | 3264851 | U | NMSU Q3 | 27–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NMSU -3 | 48.5 | 7142835 | U | NMSU Q3 | 28–7 |
2023 · Week 7 |
NMSU -3.5 | 42.5 | 14273340 | U | NMSU Q1 | 13–27 |
2023 · Week 4 |
HAW -3.5 | 55 | 7202737 | U | NMSU Q1 | 17–20 |
2023 · Week 3 |
UNM -2.5 | 52 | 3273044 | U | NMSU Q2 | 27–17 |
2023 · Week 2 |
LIB -9 | 54.5 | 14405050 | U | LIB Q3 | 17–33 |
 WIU @  NMSU2023 · Week 1 |
NMSU -21 | 55 | 6345879 | Q3 | NMSU Q4 | 21–58 |
2023 · Week 1 |
NMSU -7 | 45.5 | 7202371 | Q4 | MASS Q1 | 41–30 |
FRES
LIB
JXST
AUB
WKU
MTSU
LT
UTEP
SHSU
HAW
UNM
MASSWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 43% 6
Q2 14% 2
Q3 29% 4
Q4 14% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 82% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 100% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 7 | 14% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.