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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Michigan ✕

When did they go over?

14 games · 2023 · Michigan · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games14100%By halftime00%In Q317%In Q4536%In OT17%Stayed under750%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands214%Over cashed429%Leader lost the game17%
50% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 14% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.

All 14 games

2023 · Michigan · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 MICH -5.5 56 17273347 U MICH Q1 13–34
2023 · Postseason
 MICH -2 46 1423234047 OT MICH OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 20–27
2023 · Week 14
 MICH -21.5 36 10102026 U MICH Q4 26–0
2023 · Week 13
 MICH -3 46 10244154 Q4 MICH Q1
Late cover flip
 24–30
2023 · Week 12
 MICH -18 51 19335355 Q3 MD Q1 31–24
2023 · Week 11
 MICH -4.5 44.5 3232639 U MICH Q2 24–15
2023 · Week 10
 MICH -31 53.5 17263354 Q4 PUR Q1
Late over
 13–41
2023 · Week 8
 MICH -25.5 46.5 14284249 Q4 MICH Q2
Late over
 49–0
2023 · Week 7
 MICH -32.5 45.5 7284559 Q4 MICH Q4 7–52
2023 · Week 5
 MICH -17.5 40 14283552 Q4 MICH Q2
Late over
 45–7
2023 · Week 4
 MICH -24 44.5 14213138 U Push 7–31
2023 · Week 3
 MICH -40.5 53.5 7203737 U BGSU Q1 6–31
2023 · Week 2
 MICH -38 57.5 7213542 U UNLV Q1 7–35
2023 · Week 1
 MICH -34 51.5 7233033 U ECU Q1 3–30
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 7
Q2 21% 3
Q3 0% 0
Q4 14% 2
OT 7% 1
Push 7% 1
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 57% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 57% of 14 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over1100% 1
1–31100% 1
4–73100% 3
11–1410% 0
15–1720% 0
18–21250% 1
22+425% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.