When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
14 games · 2023 · App State · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 7 overs, 14% had cashed by halftime and 57% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.
All 14 games
2023 · App State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
APP -6.5 | 41 | 692222 | U | M-OH Q1 | 9–13 |
2023 · Week 14 |
TROY -5.5 | 52 | 0213872 | Q4 | TROY Q4 | 23–49 |
2023 · Week 13 |
APP -10 | 63 | 17445882 | Q4 | APP Q3 | 27–55 |
2023 · Week 12 |
JMU -10 | 56.5 | 315154049 | U | APP Q1 | 26–23 |
2023 · Week 11 |
GAST -3 | 62.5 | 7212856 | U | APP Q1 | 42–14 |
2023 · Week 10 |
APP -3 | 58.5 | 0243740 | U | APP Q2 | 9–31 |
2023 · Week 9 |
APP -16 | 55.5 | 14385986 | Q3 | USM Q1 | 38–48 |
2023 · Week 8 |
APP -6 | 56 | 7314149 | U | ODU Q2 Lead lost |
21–28 |
2023 · Week 7 |
APP -4.5 | 59 | 14274151 | U | CCU Q1 | 27–24 |
2023 · Week 5 |
APP -13.5 | 50.5 | 28567581 | Q2 | ULM Q1 Lead lost |
41–40 |
2023 · Week 4 |
WYO -3 | 45 | 6191941 | U | Push Late cover flip Lead lost |
19–22 |
2023 · Week 3 |
APP -7.5 | 48.5 | 17376471 | Q3 | APP Q3 | 28–43 |
2023 · Week 2 |
UNC -18 | 58 | 020375474 | OT | APP Q1 Late over |
34–40 |
 GWEB @  APP2023 · Week 1 |
APP -22.5 | 51 | 7245569 | Q3 | GWEB Q1 | 24–45 |
M-OH
TROY
GASO
JMU
GAST
MRSH
USM
ODU
CCU
ULM
WYO
ECU
UNCWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 57% 8
Q2 14% 2
Q3 14% 2
Q4 7% 1
OT 0% 0
Push 7% 1
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 67% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 71% and covered 64% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 20% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.