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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

831 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games831100%By halftime172%In Q311614%In Q428334%In OT121%Stayed under40348%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands9211%Over cashed10312%Leader lost the game567%
52% went over. Of the 428 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

Went over by halftime: 17 games

2023 · newest first
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 13
 ECU -3 43.5 27445056 Q2 TLSA Q3
Lead lost
 29–27
2023 · Week 13
 SMU -19.5 46 35667373 Q2 SMU Q1 14–59
2023 · Week 11
 TA&M -16.5 40 24445861 Q2 TA&M Q2 10–51
2023 · Week 11
 WASH -9 49 17526363 Q2 UTAH Q1 28–35
2023 · Week 11
 ILL -4.5 44 1653608493 Q2 IU Q4
Late cover flip
 45–48
2023 · Week 9
 UTSA -17.5 48 31515468 Q2 ECU Q1
Late cover flip
 27–41
2023 · Week 5
 APP -13.5 50.5 28567581 Q2 ULM Q1
Lead lost
 41–40
2023 · Week 5
 OU -19.5 48.5 31606770 Q2 OU Q2 20–50
2023 · Week 5
 TTU -9 52 28637077 Q2 TTU Q3 28–49
2023 · Week 4
 WASH -20.5 55.5 30577191 Q2 WASH Q2 32–59
2023 · Week 4
 JMU -5.5 53.5 17556983 Q2 JMU Q1 45–38
2023 · Week 4
 ISU -3.5 36 14374761 Q2 ISU Q3 27–34
2023 · Week 4
 LOU -14 53.5 14567784 Q2 LOU Q2 28–56
JKST @ TXST
2023 · Week 3
 TXST -17.5 61.5 277690111 Q2 TXST Q2 34–77
IDST @ USU
2023 · Week 2
 USU -24 61 146586106 Q2 USU Q2 28–78
UNH @ CMU
2023 · Week 2
 CMU -7 48.5 14496387 Q2 UNH Q4
Late cover flip
 42–45
SFA @ TROY
2023 · Week 1
 TROY -26 48 24516178 Q2 SFA Q1 30–48
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 419
Q2 15% 127
Q3 14% 116
Q4 17% 142
OT 0% 3
Push 3% 24
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 69% of 766 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 70% of 799 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over133100% 133
1–36598% 64
4–77579% 59
8–107261% 44
11–149366% 61
15–177135% 25
18–217327% 20
22+2499% 22
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.