When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
874 games · 2023–2026 · pick one to list those games
52% went over. Of the 450 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
Went over in Q3, leader lost the game in the last 5 minutes: 13 games
2023–2026 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 17 |
SF -4.5 | 51.5 | 28496380 | Q3 | CHI Q4 Lead lost |
38–42 |
2025 · Week 10 |
HOU -2.5 | 38.5 | 10303965 | Q3 | HOU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
29–36 |
2025 · Week 8 |
CIN -5.5 | 43.5 | 10374777 | Q3 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
39–38 |
2025 · Week 3 |
PHI -3.5 | 45.5 | 17264759 | Q3 | PHI Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
26–33 |
2025 · Week 2 |
DEN -1.5 | 43.5 | 13415157 | Q3 | IND Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
28–29 |
2025 · Week 1 |
BAL -1.5 | 51.5 | 10335381 | Q3 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
40–41 |
2025 · Week 1 |
PIT -2.5 | 38.5 | 16364366 | Q3 | NYJ Q1 Lead lost |
34–32 |
2024 · Week 18 |
SEA -7.5 | 38.5 | 10304055 | Q3 | LAR Q4 Lead lost |
30–25 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DEN -6.5 | 41.5 | 14385673 | Q3 | DEN Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
32–41 |
2024 · Week 10 |
WSH -1.5 | 45.5 | 14314855 | Q3 | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 5 |
ATL -2.5 | 43.5 | 1741476066 | Q3 | ATL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
30–36 |
2023 · Week 13 |
DAL -9.5 | 47.5 | 17415576 | Q3 | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
35–41 |
2023 · Week 10 |
BAL -6 | 39 | 20264164 | Q3 | CLE Q4 Lead lost |
33–31 |
CHI
SF
JAX
HOU
NYJ
CIN
LAR
PHI
DEN
IND
BAL
BUF
PIT
SEA
CLE
WSH
TB
ATL
DALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 431
Q2 17% 152
Q3 11% 97
Q4 19% 168
OT 2% 15
Push 1% 11
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 816 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 76% of 833 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 111 | 100% 111 |
| 1–3 | 44 | 95% 42 |
| 4–7 | 102 | 87% 89 |
| 8–10 | 101 | 64% 65 |
| 11–14 | 117 | 60% 70 |
| 15–17 | 108 | 33% 36 |
| 18–21 | 121 | 19% 23 |
| 22+ | 170 | 8% 14 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.