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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

UT Martin @ E Kentucky

Baptist Health Arena · at E Kentucky
#341UTMUT Martin
@
#294EKUE Kentucky
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTMThis seasonEKU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects EKU 74–70 · win probability EKU 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UTM has more of the edges

UTM 3, EKU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UTMBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTM 37.4, EKU 30.7. Allowed: UTM 35.8, EKU 38.5
Context
Schedule so far
UTM has played the 364th-hardest schedule, EKU the 273rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
UTMSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTM 48.7 and allows 46.1; EKU 52.1 and allows 56.1
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UTM plays 66.2 a game (303rd fastest), EKU 69.8 (128th). Faster games mean more points
UTMSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTM 21.4%, EKU 16.9%. Forced: UTM 20.0%, EKU 14.8%
EKUSmall
Home court
EKU at home. This season: EKU 0-0 at home, UTM 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
UTM hits 30.4% and allows 30.2%; EKU hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%. Threes are 47.1% and 50.8% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTM 37.0%, EKU 32.5%. Defensive: UTM 68.0%, EKU 68.3%
Even
EKU offense vs UTM defense
Offense 244th of 366 against a defense 276th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTM 20%, EKU 29%. Transfers in: UTM 1, EKU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
UTM offense vs EKU defense
Offense 352nd of 366 against a defense 340th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—EKU -4.0—
Total—144.0—
Projected score—UTM 70 · EKU 74

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadEKU -2.3—
1H total67.4—
1H projected scoreUTM 32.6 · EKU 34.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

E Kentucky has the better starters

Position by position: UT Martin 0, E Kentucky 2, even 3
UT MartinBetterE Kentucky
G F. Petkovski5.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 5
EKUSmall
G J. Holt7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 38
G D. Remagen TR1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G D. King TR2.3 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
G E. Moya NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F S. Lasu TR5.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 15
F V. Khryapa2.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 5
EKUSmall
F A. Ball7.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 20
F G. Sulaberidze NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F Y. Paul4.2 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12
UT MartinBetterE Kentucky
UTM offense352nd of 366 · -13.0
Even
EKU defense340th of 366 · -9.1
UTM defense276th of 366 · -7.0
Even
EKU offense244th of 366 · -7.4
Backcourt-4.5 · 3 players
EKUBig
Backcourt-1.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
UTMBig
Frontcourt-5.3 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.4 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUTM betterEKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UT Martin
Guards
F. Petkovski27 minD. Remagen11 min · TRE. MoyaNewR. ConleyNewS. SavkovNewN. StuknysNew
Forwards
V. Khryapa14 minG. SulaberidzeNewA. BanceviciusNewO. SambeNewG. BubnysNewA. VilkasNew
E Kentucky
Guards
J. Holt20 minD. King8 min · TRO. Hamama7 min · TRM. Miles1 minJ. McCarterNewD. VasserNew
Forwards
S. Lasu23 min · TRA. Ball20 minY. Paul17 minD. DujmovicNewJ. LoweNewM. CamaraNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTMEKU
Scoring
67.8 #319Points per game77.5 #107
1.03 #294Points per possession1.11 #123
66.2 #303Pace (possessions)69.8 #128
Shooting
48.7 #297Effective FG%52.1 #141
30.4 #3373-point %35.0 #111
47.1 #323-point attempt rate50.8 #10
37.4 #118Free throw rate30.7 #286
Possessions
21.4 #358Turnover rate16.9 #194
37.0 #17Offensive rebound rate32.5 #106
12.9 #222Assists per game14.1 #139
Defense
64.7 #5Points allowed83.1 #346
0.98 #11Points allowed per possession1.19 #354
46.1 #11Opponent effective FG%56.1 #346
30.2 #9Opponent 3-point %36.2 #312
20.0 #24Turnovers forced14.8 #304
68.0 #259Defensive rebound rate68.3 #241
8.3 #27Steals per game6.1 #228
4.1 #65Blocks per game2.9 #245
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Martin

19-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee St55–68
  • Wvs E Illinois66–63
  • Lvs Tennessee St42–67
  • Wvs Tennessee Tech64–49
  • L@ Little Rock65–67

A week or more of rest.

E Kentucky

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Stetson76–92
  • Lvs Lipscomb77–80
  • Lvs Queens University Royals79–96
  • W@ Bellarmine95–92
  • Wvs West Georgia81–80

A week or more of rest.