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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Kent State @ Cleveland St

Wolstein Center · at Cleveland St
#151KENTKent State
@
#315CLECleveland St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
KENTThis seasonCLE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KENT 82–75 · win probability KENT 74%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: KENT has more of the edges

KENT 3, CLE 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
KENTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: KENT 35.3%, CLE 27.0%. Defensive: KENT 70.7%, CLE 63.4%
KENTBig
KENT offense vs CLE defense
Offense 129th of 366 against a defense 356th, on the model’s ratings
KENTSmall
CLE offense vs KENT defense
Offense 248th of 366 against a defense 196th, on the model’s ratings
CLESmall
Home court
CLE at home. This season: CLE 0-0 at home, KENT 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
KENT has played the 179th-hardest schedule, CLE the 222nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: KENT 19%, CLE 0%. Transfers in: KENT 5, CLE 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: KENT 17.9%, CLE 17.9%. Forced: KENT 16.1%, CLE 15.1%
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: KENT plays 73.3 a game (17th fastest), CLE 71.4 (56th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
KENT hits 35.0% and allows 35.0%; CLE hits 37.5% and allows 36.1%. Threes are 44.9% and 50.8% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: KENT 51.4 and allows 52.1; CLE 54.2 and allows 57.2
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: KENT 43.5, CLE 37.9. Allowed: KENT 39.5, CLE 35.5
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelKENT -7.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model156.8
Model edge—
Projected score
KENT 82.1 · CLE 74.7
Win probability
KENT 74%
1st half
Spread
KENT -4.5
Total
73.3
Projected score
KENT 38.9 · CLE 34.4
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Kent State has the better starters

Position by position: Kent State 2, Cleveland St 0, even 3
Kent StateBetterCleveland St
G C. Henry TR11.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.1 ast Score 66
Even
G O. Bronston TR10.3 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55
G C. Willis TR6.3 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Lowery TR4.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30
G Q. Woidke9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 69
KENTBig
G R. Griffith TR3.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 18
F C. Williams TR9.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 52
KENTBig
G C. Stinson TR1.2 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 14
F G. Nwabude TR5.1 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 57
Even
C D. Vorst TR7.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50
Kent StateBetterCleveland St
KENT offense129th of 366 · -3.5
KENTBig
CLE defense356th of 366 · -10.1
KENT defense196th of 366 · -4.8
Even
CLE offense248th of 366 · -7.5
Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players
KENTBig
Backcourt-3.5 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+0.2 · 1 player
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
CLESmall
Bench+0.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestKENT betterCLE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Kent State
Guards
C. Henry29 min · TRC. Willis27 min · TRQ. Woidke20 minB. Moss5 minD. Lakatos1 minJ. SumlinNew
Forwards
C. Williams24 min · TRG. Nwabude19 min · TRL. Diouf13 min · TRD. Briscoe8 minL. Vanderwarker4 minJ. TownsendNew
Cleveland St
Guards
O. Bronston21 min · TRJ. Lowery15 min · TRR. Griffith14 min · TRC. Stinson8 min · TRA. Bruskotter7 min · TRM. BaysNew
Forwards
D. Jones2 min · TRG. HeadingsNewB. McCruterNew
Centers
D. Vorst21 min · TRB. WhiteNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
KENTCLE
Scoring
82.3 #31Points per game78.6 #89
1.12 #102Points per possession1.10 #133
73.3 #17Pace (possessions)71.4 #56
Shooting
51.4 #175Effective FG%54.2 #62
35.0 #1183-point %37.5 #21
44.9 #693-point attempt rate50.8 #11
43.5 #15Free throw rate37.9 #105
Possessions
17.9 #268Turnover rate17.9 #264
35.3 #39Offensive rebound rate27.0 #294
15.1 #81Assists per game14.8 #100
Defense
80.6 #328Points allowed88.6 #363
1.10 #221Points allowed per possession1.24 #363
52.1 #219Opponent effective FG%57.2 #360
35.0 #246Opponent 3-point %36.1 #309
16.1 #219Turnovers forced15.1 #279
70.7 #124Defensive rebound rate63.4 #356
6.5 #174Steals per game5.5 #289
3.3 #184Blocks per game2.6 #297
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kent State

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Illinois St58–79
  • Lvs Akron68–75
  • Wvs Ohio86–75
  • Wvs W Michigan86–78
  • W@ N Illinois102–76

A week or more of rest.

Cleveland St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Wright St61–90
  • Wvs IU Indy101–93
  • L@ Robert Morris64–83
  • Lvs N Kentucky70–81
  • Lvs Purdue FW86–92

A week or more of rest.