Foster Pavilion · at Baylor · Conference game
Closing line
HOU -2.5✓ HOU covered by 19.5
HOU -2.5✓ HOU covered by 19.5Closing total142.5Under by 10.5
| HOU | This season | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| 14-1 | Record | 9-4 |
| 7-8 | ATS | 6-7 |
| 7-8 | O/U | 9-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: HOU 76–72 BAY · ✓ HOU (62%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 33 | 44 | 77 |
| BAY | 26 | 29 | 55 |
1st half: HOU 33, BAY 26 (HOU by 7). The model had HOU by 2.1 and a total of 69.2 (actual 59).
Team stats
| HOU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-74 39% | Field goals | 15-41 37% |
| 11-39 28% | 3-pointers | 7-19 37% |
| 8-13 62% | Free throws | 18-31 58% |
| 45 23 off | Rebounds | 34 10 off |
| 16 | Assists | 11 |
| 7 | Steals | 3 |
| 5 | Blocks | 4 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 16 |
| 24 | Fouls | 13 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 16 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 3 |
Players
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Sharp G | 30 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 6-14 | 3-9 |
| Milos Uzan G | 27 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1-10 | 0-5 |
| Kingston Flemings G | 26 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 5-12 | 0-3 |
| Joseph Tugler F | 24 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. F | 23 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 4-5 | 3-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isiah Harwell G | 24 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 4-14 | 4-12 |
| Kalifa Sakho F | 14 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Chase McCarty F | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Ramon Walker Jr. G | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Mercy Miller G | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Cedric Lath C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Bryce Jackson, Jacob McFarland, Kordel Jefferson
| BAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Carr G | 34 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 3-9 | 3-6 |
| Obi Agbim G | 32 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-8 | 2-5 |
| Tounde Yessoufou G | 28 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Michael Rataj G | 28 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Caden Powell C | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaac Williams IV G | 26 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| James Nnaji C | 17 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Dan Skillings Jr. G | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
Did not play: James Goodis, Will Kuykendall, Juslin Bodo Bodo, JJ White, Andre Iguodala II, Drew Perry, Mayo Soyoye, Maikcol Perez
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -4.5
2 → BAY
CloseHOU -2.5
2 pts toward BAY
Total
Open143.5
▼ 1
Close142.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
HOU -148 · BAY +124
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -4.5 · closed HOU -2.5 · moved 2 toward BAYmodel HOU -3.5
model HOU -3.5
Opened 143.5 · closed 142.5 · moved 1 downmodel 147.5
model 147.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -2.5 | HOU -3.4 | HOU +0.9 | W HOU covered |
| Total | 142.5 | 147.7 | Over 5.2 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | HOU 75.5 · BAY 72.2 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | HOU -2.1 | HOU -7.0 |
| 1H total | 69.2 | 59 |
| 1H projected score | HOU 35.7 · BAY 33.5 | HOU 33 · BAY 26 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| BAY | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
HOU 3–0 BAYHOU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 3 meetings · HOU 2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | HOU 65 @ BAY 61 | BAY +4.5 | BAY W |
| Feb 10, 2024-25 | BAY 65 @ HOU 76 | HOU -9.5 | HOU W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | HOU 82 @ BAY 76 | BAY +2.5 | HOU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Houston
15 games played
Straight up
14-1
93% wins
Against the spread
7-8
47% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-8
47% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LEH | W 75-57 | -36.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs TOW | W 65-48 | -26.5 | L −9.5 | 130.5 | U 113 |
| Nov 12 | vs OAK | W 78-45 | -30.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 16 | vs AUB | W 73-72 | -7.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 20 | vs RID | W 91-45 | -40.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 24 | vs SYR | W 78-74 | -14.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TENN | L 73-76 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs ND | W 66-56 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs FSU | W 82-67 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs JKST | W 80-38 | -40.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | U 118 |
| Dec 13 | vs NOLA | W 99-57 | -32.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARK | W 94-85 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | vs MTSU | W 69-60 | -25.5 | L −16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 3 | @ CIN | W 67-60 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 6 | vs TTU | W 69-65 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 134 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−18.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−9.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
+2.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
−6.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+5.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
−10.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
−5.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−1.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+2.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
+1.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+9.5
20
vsARK
ARKW 94-85
+3.5
29
vsMTSU
MTSUW 69-60
−16.5
3
@CIN
CINW 67-60
+2.5
6
vsTTU
TTUW 69-65
−3.5
covered 7didn’t cover 8avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−4.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−17.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
−15.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
+4.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+1.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
+11.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
+12.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−10.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+0.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
−19.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+17.5
20
vsARK
ARKW 94-85
+32.5
29
vsMTSU
MTSUW 69-60
−9.5
3
@CIN
CINW 67-60
−8.5
6
vsTTU
TTUW 69-65
−8.5
over 7under 8avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Baylor
13 games played
Straight up
9-4
69% wins
Against the spread
6-7
46% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-4
69% overs · avg +7.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RGV | W 96-81 | -24.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 9 | vs WASH | W 78-69 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | vs TAR | W 94-81 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 24 | vs CREI | W 81-74 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 25 | vs SJU | L 81-96 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs SDSU | W 91-81 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 2 | vs SAC | W 110-88 | -29.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 6 | @ MEM | L 71-78 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs NORF | W 97-67 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 19 | vs ALCN | W 113-56 | -35.5 | W +21.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 21 | vs SOU | W 111-67 | -26.5 | W +17.5 | 169.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 3 | @ TCU | L 63-69 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 7 | vs ISU | L 60-70 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
−9.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
+2.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
−10.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+3.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
−9.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+7.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
−7.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−10.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+3.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+21.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+17.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−3.5
7
vsISU
ISUL 60-70
−6.5
covered 6didn’t cover 7avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
+22.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
−9.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
+25.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+0.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
+17.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+23.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
+39.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−9.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+15.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+8.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+8.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−22.5
7
vsISU
ISUL 60-70
−25.5
over 9under 4avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Houston
14-1 overall · 2-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Texas Tech69–65
- W@ Cincinnati67–60
- Wvs MTSU69–60
- Wvs Arkansas94–85
- Wvs LSU N Orleans99–57
4 days since their last game.
Baylor
9-4 overall · 0-2 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Iowa State60–70
- L@ TCU63–69
- Wvs Southern111–67
- Wvs Alcorn St113–56
- Wvs Norfolk St97–67
3 days since their last game.