Addition Financial Arena · at UCF · Conference game
Closing line
KU -4.5✓ UCF covered by 10.5
KU -4.5✓ UCF covered by 10.5Closing total157.5Under by 1.5
| KU | This season | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| 10-3 | Record | 11-1 |
| 9-4 | ATS | 6-6 |
| 4-9 | O/U | 6-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: KU 80–76 UCF · ✗ KU (62%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KU | 41 | 34 | 75 |
| UCF | 44 | 37 | 81 |
1st half: KU 41, UCF 44 (UCF by 3). The model had KU by 2.2 and a total of 72.8 (actual 85).
Team stats
| KU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-58 43% | Field goals | 28-64 44% |
| 8-23 35% | 3-pointers | 7-23 30% |
| 17-23 74% | Free throws | 18-26 69% |
| 39 11 off | Rebounds | 38 13 off |
| 11 | Assists | 10 |
| 3 | Steals | 4 |
| 7 | Blocks | 2 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| KU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre White G | 37 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 4-13 | 1-5 |
| Melvin Council Jr. G | 30 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 8-11 | 1-2 |
| Flory Bidunga F | 29 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bryson Tiller F | 27 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-1 |
| Darryn Peterson G | 23 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 8-17 | 5-10 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamari McDowell G | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Kohl Rosario G | 19 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Elmarko Jackson G | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Samis Calderon F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Corbin Allen, Nginyu Ngala, Paul Mbiya, Will Thengvall, Justin Cross, Wilder Evers, Jayden Dawson
| UCF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Themus Fulks G | 33 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 6-15 | 0-2 |
| Jamichael Stillwell F | 29 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-1 |
| Jordan Burks F | 29 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 3-6 |
| Riley Kugel G | 26 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 8-17 | 2-7 |
| John Bol C | 22 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Carmelo Pacheco G | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Devan Cambridge F | 17 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Jeremy Foumena C | 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Chris Johnson G | 13 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-4 |
| Kris Parker G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Zachary Johnson, Tanner Jones, Elijah Hulsewe, George Beale Jr., Poohpha Warakulnukroh
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketKU -4.5
ModelKU -3.5
Model edgeUCF +1.0
W UCF covered
Total
Market157.5
Model155.4
Model edgeUnder 2.1
W Under
Projected score
KU 79.5 · UCF 76
KU 75 · UCF 81
Win probability
KU 62%
1st half
Spread
KU -2.2
UCF -3.0
Total
72.8
85 points
Projected score
KU 37.5 · UCF 35.3
KU 41 · UCF 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenKU -6.5
2 → UCF
CloseKU -4.5
2 pts toward UCF
Total
Open151.5
▲ 6
Close157.5
Up 6 since the open
Moneyline
KU -198 · UCF +164
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened KU -6.5 · closed KU -4.5 · moved 2 toward UCFmodel KU -3.5
model KU -3.5
Opened 151.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 6 upmodel 155.5
model 155.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KU | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
| UCF | 10-0 100% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
KU 3–1 UCFKU leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · KU has won the last 3 meetings · KU 1-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024-25 | UCF 94 vs KU 98 | KU -10.5 | UCF W |
| Jan 28, 2024-25 | UCF 87 @ KU 91 | KU -12.5 | UCF W |
| Jan 5, 2024-25 | KU 99 @ UCF 48 | UCF +4.5 | KU W |
| Jan 10, 2023-24 | KU 60 @ UCF 65 | UCF +6.5 | UCF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Kansas
13 games played
Straight up
10-3
77% wins
Against the spread
9-4
69% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-9
31% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs GB | W 94-51 | -30.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 7 | @ UNC | L 74-87 | +2.5 | L −10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs AMCC | W 77-46 | -25.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 15 | vs PRIN | W 76-57 | -22.5 | L −3.5 | 144.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 18 | vs DUKE | L 66-78 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 24 | vs ND | W 71-61 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs SYR | W 71-60 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs TENN | W 81-76 | +7.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | vs CONN | L 56-61 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 7 | vs MIZ | W 80-60 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | @ NCSU | W 77-76 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOW | W 73-49 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 137.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 22 | vs DAV | W 90-61 | -14.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | O 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsGB
GBW 94-51
+12.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 74-87
−10.5
11
vsAMCC
AMCCW 77-46
+5.5
15
vsPRIN
PRINW 76-57
−3.5
18
vsDUKE
DUKEL 66-78
−1.5
24
vsND
NDW 71-61
+4.5
25
vsSYR
SYRW 71-60
+6.5
26
vsTENN
TENNW 81-76
+12.5
2
vsCONN
CONNL 56-61
−1.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZW 80-60
+14.5
13
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
+2.5
16
vsTOW
TOWW 73-49
+9.5
22
vsDAV
DAVW 90-61
+14.5
covered 9didn’t cover 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsGB
GBW 94-51
−7.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 74-87
+1.5
11
vsAMCC
AMCCW 77-46
−22.5
15
vsPRIN
PRINW 76-57
−11.5
18
vsDUKE
DUKEL 66-78
−5.5
24
vsND
NDW 71-61
−11.5
25
vsSYR
SYRW 71-60
−13.5
26
vsTENN
TENNW 81-76
+16.5
2
vsCONN
CONNL 56-61
−24.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZW 80-60
−10.5
13
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
+4.5
16
vsTOW
TOWW 73-49
−15.5
22
vsDAV
DAVW 90-61
+11.5
over 4under 9avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
UCF
12 games played
Straight up
11-1
92% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-6
50% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HOF | W 82-78 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 8 | vs VAN | L 93-105 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 166.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 11 | vs FAMU | W 97-60 | -23.5 | W +13.5 | 169.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 14 | @ TA&M | W 86-74 | +10.5 | W +22.5 | 172.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 17 | vs OAK | W 87-83 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 163.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 20 | vs PITT | W 77-67 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 25 | vs QUIN | W 102-91 | -13.5 | L −2.5 | 162.5 | O 193 |
| Nov 29 | vs VMI | W 82-57 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 7 | vsTOW | W 86-61 | -9.5 | W +15.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 17 | vs MER | W 81-63 | -16.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs FGCU | W 102-80 | -17.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 23 | vs FAU | W 85-80 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHOF
HOFW 82-78
−4.5
8
vsVAN
VANL 93-105
−1.5
11
vsFAMU
FAMUW 97-60
+13.5
14
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-74
+22.5
17
vsOAK
OAKW 87-83
−9.5
20
vsPITT
PITTW 77-67
+11.5
25
vsQUIN
QUINW 102-91
−2.5
29
vsVMI
VMIW 82-57
−0.5
7
vsTOW
TOWW 86-61
+15.5
17
vsMER
MERW 81-63
+1.5
20
vsFGCU
FGCUW 102-80
+4.5
23
vsFAU
FAUW 85-80
−3.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHOF
HOFW 82-78
+19.5
8
vsVAN
VANL 93-105
+31.5
11
vsFAMU
FAMUW 97-60
−12.5
14
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-74
−12.5
17
vsOAK
OAKW 87-83
+6.5
20
vsPITT
PITTW 77-67
−5.5
25
vsQUIN
QUINW 102-91
+30.5
29
vsVMI
VMIW 82-57
−20.5
7
vsTOW
TOWW 86-61
−1.5
17
vsMER
MERW 81-63
−16.5
20
vsFGCU
FGCUW 102-80
+20.5
23
vsFAU
FAUW 85-80
+2.5
over 6under 6avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Kansas
10-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Davidson90–61
- Wvs Towson73–49
- W@ NC State77–76
- Wvs Missouri80–60
- Lvs UConn56–61
A week or more of rest.
UCF
11-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs FAU85–80
- Wvs FGCU102–80
- Wvs Mercer81–63
- Wvs Towson86–61
- Wvs VMI82–57
A week or more of rest.