Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St
Closing line
MSST -3.5✓ MSST covered by 1.5
MSST -3.5✓ MSST covered by 1.5Closing total153.5Under by 16.5
 MEM | This season | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 4-6 | Record | 6-5 |
| 8-2 | ATS | 2-9 |
| 4-6 | O/U | 7-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MEM 77–80 MSST · ✓ MSST (60%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 30 | 36 | 66 |
| MSST | 34 | 37 | 71 |
1st half: MEM 30, MSST 34 (MSST by 4). The model had MSST by 1.6 and a total of 73.3 (actual 64).
Team stats
| MEM | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-62 37% | Field goals | 24-54 44% |
| 9-31 29% | 3-pointers | 6-21 29% |
| 11-16 69% | Free throws | 17-25 68% |
| 43 17 off | Rebounds | 35 11 off |
| 11 | Assists | 11 |
| 9 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 21 | Fouls | 12 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| MEM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dug McDaniel G | 32 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3-13 | 1-4 |
| Hasan Abdul Hakim G | 30 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Ashton Hardaway F | 27 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4-9 | 3-7 |
| Julius Thedford G | 22 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Thierno Sylla C | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Aaron Bradshaw F | 29 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-4 |
| Curtis Givens III G | 23 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 6-10 | 3-5 |
| Quante Berry G | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Sincere Parker G | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Zach Davis G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tariq Ingraham F | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Simon Majok C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Arop Arop, William Whorton, Mason Matthews
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 37 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 4-13 | 2-7 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 32 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4-7 | 0-2 |
| Jayden Epps G | 27 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 7-12 | 4-9 |
| Sergej Macura F | 26 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 23 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 21 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 20 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Achor Achor F | 10 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| King Grace G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Gai Chol, Dellquan Warren, Amier Ali, Brandon Walker, Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSST -3.5
no move
CloseMSST -3.5
No change since the open
Total
Open150.5
▲ 3
Close153.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
MEM +145 · MSST -175
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSST -3.5 · unchangedmodel MSST -3
model MSST -3
Opened 150.5 · closed 153.5 · moved 3 upmodel 156.5
model 156.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSST -3.5 | MSST -2.9 | MEM +0.6 | L MSST covered |
| Total | 153.5 | 156.7 | Over 3.2 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | MEM 76.9 · MSST 79.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MSST -1.6 | MSST -4.0 |
| 1H total | 73.3 | 64 |
| 1H projected score | MEM 35.9 · MSST 37.5 | MEM 30 · MSST 34 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% |
| MSST | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MEM 0–1 MSSTMSST leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MEM 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2024-25 | MSST 79 @ MEM 66 | MEM +1.5 | MSST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Memphis
10 games played
Straight up
4-6
40% wins
Against the spread
8-2
80% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-6
40% overs · avg −5.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs SF | W 76-70 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 11 | @ MISS | L 77-83 | +9.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 16 | vs UNLV | L 78-92 | -9.5 | L −23.5 | 163.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 20 | vs PUR | L 71-80 | +14.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs WAKE | L 68-69 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 26 | vs SIU | W 74-58 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 3 | vs NOLA | W 86-70 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs BAY | W 78-71 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | @ LOU | L 73-99 | +16.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 17 | vs VAN | L 70-77 | +9.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsSF
SFW 76-70
+3.5
11
@MISS
MISSL 77-83
+3.5
16
vsUNLV
UNLVL 78-92
−23.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 71-80
+5.5
21
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
+1.5
26
vsSIU
SIUW 74-58
+5.5
3
vsNOLA
NOLAW 86-70
+1.5
6
vsBAY
BAYW 78-71
+10.5
13
@LOU
LOUL 73-99
−9.5
17
vsVAN
VANL 70-77
+2.5
covered 8didn’t cover 2avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsSF
SFW 76-70
−11.5
11
@MISS
MISSL 77-83
+7.5
16
vsUNLV
UNLVL 78-92
+6.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 71-80
−5.5
21
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
−23.5
26
vsSIU
SIUW 74-58
−24.5
3
vsNOLA
NOLAW 86-70
+6.5
6
vsBAY
BAYW 78-71
−9.5
13
@LOU
LOUL 73-99
+9.5
17
vsVAN
VANL 70-77
−12.5
over 4under 6avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mississippi St
11 games played
Straight up
6-5
55% wins
Against the spread
2-9
18% covers · avg −8.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-4
64% overs · avg +3.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vsNOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vsSF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
covered 2didn’t cover 9avg −8.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
over 7under 4avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Memphis
4-6 overall · 0-0 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Vanderbilt70–77
- L@ Louisville73–99
- Wvs Baylor78–71
- Wvs LSU N Orleans86–70
- Wvs S Illinois74–58
3 days since their last game.
Mississippi St
6-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Long Island87–83
- Wvs Utah82–74
- Lvs San Francisco62–65
- W@ Georgia Tech85–73
- Lvs SMU81–87
4 days since their last game.