Icardo Center · at Bakersfield · Conference game
Closing line
UCSB -7.5✓ CSUB covered by 1.5
UCSB -7.5✓ CSUB covered by 1.5Closing total144.5Under by 0.5
| UCSB | This season | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| 7-7 | Record | 6-10 |
| 4-10 | ATS | 7-9 |
| 8-6 | O/U | 7-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UCSB 77–74 CSUB · ✓ UCSB (61%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSB | 38 | 37 | 75 |
| CSUB | 29 | 40 | 69 |
1st half: UCSB 38, CSUB 29 (UCSB by 9). The model had UCSB by 2.1 and a total of 70.7 (actual 67).
Team stats
| UCSB | CSUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-47 45% | Field goals | 26-55 47% |
| 10-26 38% | 3-pointers | 2-12 17% |
| 23-29 79% | Free throws | 15-21 71% |
| 32 10 off | Rebounds | 30 11 off |
| 11 | Assists | 6 |
| 2 | Steals | 5 |
| 6 | Blocks | 4 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 22 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| UCSB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Mahaney G | 35 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-5 |
| Miro Little G | 28 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Colin Smith F | 26 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-2 |
| Marvin McGhee IV G | 20 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Evans Kipruto C | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| CJ Shaw G | 28 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Zion Sensley G | 21 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 5-9 | 3-6 |
| Hosana Kitenge F | 20 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Michael Simcoe F | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Koat Keat Tong F | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Luke Zuffelato, John Simcoe, Kyle Haughy, ZZ Clark, Bryce Bedgood, Jason Fontenet II, Isaac Shingange
| CSUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kadar Waller G | 31 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| AJ George G | 26 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-2 |
| Dailin Smith G | 25 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4-11 | 0-2 |
| Jaden Alexander G | 25 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 4-9 | 0-2 |
| Pierre Geneste Jr. C | 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ronald Jessamy F | 27 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Mike Price G | 26 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 6-12 | 2-4 |
| Tom Mark F | 23 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: TJ James Jr., Dylan Purnell, Colin Darby, Bentley Waller, CJ Hardy, Caleb McCarty
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCSB -7.5
ModelUCSB -3.3
Model edgeCSUB +4.2
W CSUB covered
Total
Market144.5
Model151.0
Model edgeOver 6.5
L Under
Projected score
UCSB 77.1 · CSUB 73.8
UCSB 75 · CSUB 69
Win probability
UCSB 61%
1st half
Spread
UCSB -2.1
UCSB -9.0
Total
70.7
67 points
Projected score
UCSB 36.4 · CSUB 34.3
UCSB 38 · CSUB 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCSB -6.5
1 → UCSB
CloseUCSB -7.5
1 pt toward UCSB
Total
Open149.5
▼ 5
Close144.5
Down 5 since the open
Moneyline
UCSB -310 · CSUB +250
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCSB -6.5 · closed UCSB -7.5 · moved 1 toward UCSBmodel UCSB -3.5
model UCSB -3.5
Opened 149.5 · closed 144.5 · moved 5 downmodel 151
model 151
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSB | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
| CSUB | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UCSB 9–0 CSUBUCSB leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UCSB has won the last 9 meetings · UCSB 7-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025-26 | CSUB 84 @ UCSB 109 | UCSB -12.5 | UCSB W |
| Mar 12, 2024-25 | CSUB 66 vs UCSB 71 | UCSB -5.5 | CSUB W |
| Feb 6, 2024-25 | UCSB 81 @ CSUB 75 | CSUB +3.5 | UCSB W |
| Jan 9, 2024-25 | CSUB 66 @ UCSB 78 | UCSB -7.5 | UCSB W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | UCSB 70 @ CSUB 59 | CSUB +2.5 | UCSB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Santa Barbara
14 games played
Straight up
7-7
50% wins
Against the spread
4-10
29% covers · avg −4.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg +6.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs SJSU | W 85-74 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ SAC | W 92-87 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 17 | vs LMU | L 74-78 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 22 | @ NEV | L 64-77 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 28 | vs LEH | W 72-70 | -10.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | vs SEA | W 74-71 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 4 | vs LBSU | W 84-77 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 6 | vsCSUB | W 109-84 | -12.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 13 | vs UVU | L 53-68 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 17 | @ GB | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 22 | vs PORT | W 79-61 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 1 | @ CSUF | L 84-95 | -3.5 | L −14.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | @ CSUN | L 65-74 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 8 | vs UCD | L 86-93 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsSJSU
SJSUW 85-74
+1.5
11
@SAC
SACW 92-87
−2.5
17
vsLMU
LMUL 74-78
−7.5
22
@NEV
NEVL 64-77
−7.5
28
vsLEH
LEHW 72-70
−8.5
29
vsSEA
SEAW 74-71
+5.5
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 84-77
−6.5
6
vsCSUB
CSUBW 109-84
+12.5
13
vsUVU
UVUL 53-68
−9.5
17
@GB
GBL 64-67
−10.5
22
vsPORT
PORTW 79-61
+8.5
1
@CSUF
CSUFL 84-95
−14.5
3
@CSUN
CSUNL 65-74
−6.5
8
vsUCD
UCDL 86-93
−11.5
covered 4didn’t cover 10avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsSJSU
SJSUW 85-74
+12.5
11
@SAC
SACW 92-87
+17.5
17
vsLMU
LMUL 74-78
+6.5
22
@NEV
NEVL 64-77
−6.5
28
vsLEH
LEHW 72-70
−4.5
29
vsSEA
SEAW 74-71
+2.5
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 84-77
+19.5
6
vsCSUB
CSUBW 109-84
+47.5
13
vsUVU
UVUL 53-68
−25.5
17
@GB
GBL 64-67
−9.5
22
vsPORT
PORTW 79-61
−7.5
1
@CSUF
CSUFL 84-95
+23.5
3
@CSUN
CSUNL 65-74
−17.5
8
vsUCD
UCDL 86-93
+31.5
over 8under 6avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bakersfield
16 games played
Straight up
6-10
38% wins
Against the spread
7-9
44% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-9
44% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ CAL | L 60-87 | +15.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 11 | vs WIU | W 74-58 | -7.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 14 | @ MISS | L 60-82 | +23.5 | W +1.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 17 | @ PRST | L 80-93 | +8.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 22 | vs MVSU | W 86-70 | -21.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 25 | @ FSU | L 59-89 | +26.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 30 | vs FRES | W 76-71 | +10.5 | W +15.5 | 150.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 4 | @CSUN | L 66-87 | +5.5 | L −15.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 6 | @UCSB | L 84-109 | +12.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 11 | vs NDSU | L 69-80 | +7.5 | L −3.5 | 149.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs PEPP | L 62-70 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 23 | vs IDHO | W 64-63 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 1 | vs UCI | L 77-81 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 3 | @UCD | W 81-79 | +9.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 8 | vs UCR | W 67-66 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 10 | @LBSU | L 75-81 | +6.5 | W +0.5 | 142.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CAL
CALL 60-87
−11.5
11
vsWIU
WIUW 74-58
+8.5
14
@MISS
MISSL 60-82
+1.5
17
@PRST
PRSTL 80-93
−4.5
22
vsMVSU
MVSUW 86-70
−5.5
25
@FSU
FSUL 59-89
−3.5
30
vsFRES
FRESW 76-71
+15.5
4
@CSUN
CSUNL 66-87
−15.5
6
@UCSB
UCSBL 84-109
−12.5
11
vsNDSU
NDSUL 69-80
−3.5
13
vsPEPP
PEPPL 62-70
−9.5
23
vsIDHO
IDHOW 64-63
+8.5
1
vsUCI
UCIL 77-81
+7.5
3
@UCD
UCDW 81-79
+11.5
8
vsUCR
UCRW 67-66
−2.5
10
@LBSU
LBSUL 75-81
+0.5
covered 7didn’t cover 9avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CAL
CALL 60-87
−0.5
11
vsWIU
WIUW 74-58
−9.5
14
@MISS
MISSL 60-82
+1.5
17
@PRST
PRSTL 80-93
+31.5
22
vsMVSU
MVSUW 86-70
+17.5
25
@FSU
FSUL 59-89
−11.5
30
vsFRES
FRESW 76-71
−3.5
4
@CSUN
CSUNL 66-87
−2.5
6
@UCSB
UCSBL 84-109
+47.5
11
vsNDSU
NDSUL 69-80
−0.5
13
vsPEPP
PEPPL 62-70
−15.5
23
vsIDHO
IDHOW 64-63
−23.5
1
vsUCI
UCIL 77-81
+14.5
3
@UCD
UCDW 81-79
+8.5
8
vsUCR
UCRW 67-66
−14.5
10
@LBSU
LBSUL 75-81
+13.5
over 7under 9avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Santa Barbara
7-7 overall · 2-3 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UC Davis86–93
- L@ CSU Northridge65–74
- L@ Fullerton84–95
- Wvs Portland79–61
- L@ Green Bay64–67
A week or more of rest.
Bakersfield
6-10 overall · 2-4 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Long Beach St75–81
- Wvs UC Riverside67–66
- W@ UC Davis81–79
- Lvs UC Irvine77–81
- Wvs Idaho64–63
5 days since their last game.