Hinkle Fieldhouse · at Butler · Conference game
Closing line
CONN -11.5✓ BTLR covered by 1.5
CONN -11.5✓ BTLR covered by 1.5Closing total143.5Over by 6.5
| CONN | This season | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| 22-2 | Record | 13-11 |
| 8-16 | ATS | 11-13 |
| 12-12 | O/U | 13-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CONN 80–71 BTLR · ✓ CONN (80%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 41 | 39 | 80 |
| BTLR | 38 | 32 | 70 |
1st half: CONN 41, BTLR 38 (CONN by 3). The model had CONN by 5.8 and a total of 70.6 (actual 79).
Team stats
| CONN | BTLR | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-59 51% | Field goals | 25-54 46% |
| 13-31 42% | 3-pointers | 8-21 38% |
| 7-9 78% | Free throws | 12-16 75% |
| 33 12 off | Rebounds | 26 8 off |
| 22 | Assists | 21 |
| 5 | Steals | 6 |
| 7 | Blocks | 4 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 35 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 4-9 | 2-4 |
| Braylon Mullins G | 34 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 6-15 | 3-9 |
| Solo Ball G | 33 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 8-14 | 6-12 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 31 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 6-10 | 0-0 |
| Alex Karaban F | 28 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Ross F | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Jaylin Stewart F | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Eric Reibe C | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Malachi Smith G | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Uros Paunovic, Jacob Furphy, Alec Millender, Rrezon Elezaj, Jacob Ross, Dwayne Koroma
| BTLR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Ajayi F | 33 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3-10 | 0-0 |
| Finley Bizjack G | 33 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Evan Haywood G | 30 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4-9 | 4-9 |
| Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor G | 24 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2-8 | 1-4 |
| Drayton Jones C | 22 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 6-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamie Kaiser Jr. F | 27 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Yohan Traore F | 17 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Jackson Keith F | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Bryson Cardinal, Kevin Ndzie, Ethan McComb, Jalen Jackson, Jack McCaffery, Azavier Robinson, Yame Butler
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCONN -11.5
ModelCONN -9.6
Model edgeBTLR +1.9
W BTLR covered
Total
Market143.5
Model150.8
Model edgeOver 7.3
W Over
Projected score
CONN 80.2 · BTLR 70.6
CONN 80 · BTLR 70
Win probability
CONN 80%
1st half
Spread
CONN -5.8
CONN -3.0
Total
70.6
79 points
Projected score
CONN 38.2 · BTLR 32.4
CONN 41 · BTLR 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCONN -10.5
1 → CONN
CloseCONN -11.5
1 pt toward CONN
Total
Open144.5
▼ 1
Close143.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
CONN -850 · BTLR +575
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CONN -10.5 · closed CONN -11.5 · moved 1 toward CONNmodel CONN -9.5
model CONN -9.5
Opened 144.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 1 downmodel 151
model 151
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 9-1 90% | 2-8 20% | 7-3 70% |
| BTLR | 3-7 30% | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
CONN 9–0 BTLRCONN leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · CONN has won the last 9 meetings · CONN 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025-26 | BTLR 60 @ CONN 79 | CONN -15.5 | CONN W |
| Jan 21, 2024-25 | BTLR 78 @ CONN 80 | CONN -13.5 | BTLR W |
| Dec 21, 2024-25 | CONN 78 @ BTLR 74 | BTLR +8.5 | BTLR W |
| Feb 6, 2023-24 | BTLR 62 @ CONN 71 | CONN -13.5 | BTLR W |
| Jan 5, 2023-24 | CONN 88 @ BTLR 81 | BTLR +5.5 | CONN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UConn
24 games played
Straight up
22-2
92% wins
Against the spread
8-16
33% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-12
50% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NHVN | W 79-55 | -42.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs UML | W 110-47 | -36.5 | W +26.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 10 | vs COLU | W 89-62 | -32.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs BYU | W 86-84 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARIZ | L 67-71 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 23 | vs BRY | W 72-49 | -36.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs ILL | W 74-61 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ KU | W 61-56 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-59 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 9 | vs FLA | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 12 | vs TEX | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vsBTLR | W 79-60 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | @ DEP | W 72-54 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 133.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 31 | @ XAV | W 90-67 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 4 | vs MARQ | W 73-57 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 7 | @ PROV | W 103-98 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | vsDEP | W 72-60 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @ HALL | W 69-64 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | O 133 |
| Jan 17 | @ GTWN | W 64-62 | -11.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 24 | vs VILL | W 75-67 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 27 | vsPROV | W 87-81 | -15.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 31 | @ CREI | W 85-58 | -6.5 | W +20.5 | 142.5 | O 143 |
| Feb 3 | vsXAV | W 92-60 | -16.5 | W +15.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 6 | @ SJU | L 72-81 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 143.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
+8.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
+1.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
−12.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
−0.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−3.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
+3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
+5.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+11.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−1.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
−4.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−7.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
−1.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−9.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
−3.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
−9.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+20.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+15.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
−10.5
covered 8didn’t cover 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
−15.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
−24.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
+0.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
+4.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−11.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
−5.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
−7.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+12.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−14.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
+48.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−5.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
+0.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−15.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
+4.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
+15.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+0.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
+9.5
over 12under 12avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Butler
24 games played
Straight up
13-11
54% wins
Against the spread
11-13
46% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-11
54% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs USI | W 88-58 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 8 | vs IUIN | W 112-80 | -20.5 | W +11.5 | 192.5 | U 192 |
| Nov 11 | vs CHST | W 98-66 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 15 | @ SMU | L 85-87 | +7.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 21 | vs SC | W 79-72 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 150.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 23 | vs UVA | W 80-73 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs WRST | W 94-69 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | vs EMU | W 84-68 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 6 | vs BOIS | L 68-77 | -2.5 | L −11.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 13 | vsPROV | W 113-110 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 164.5 | O 223 |
| Dec 16 | @CONN | L 60-79 | +15.5 | L −3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 20 | vs NU | W 61-58 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | U 119 |
| Dec 22 | vs NJIT | W 101-52 | -32.5 | W +16.5 | 149.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 30 | @CREI | L 85-89 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 3 | vsVILL | L 67-85 | -2.5 | L −20.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 6 | vsSJU | L 70-84 | +4.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 14 | @XAV | L 75-89 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 17 | @HALL | W 77-66 | +6.5 | W +17.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | vsDEP | W 87-80 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 23 | vsMARQ | W 87-76 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 28 | @SJU | L 70-92 | +12.5 | L −9.5 | 158.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 31 | vsGTWN | L 64-77 | -5.5 | L −18.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 4 | @PROV | L 87-97 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 168.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 7 | @MARQ | L 55-70 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 155.5 | U 125 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUSI
USIW 88-58
+7.5
8
vsIUIN
IUINW 112-80
+11.5
11
vsCHST
CHSTW 98-66
+5.5
15
@SMU
SMUL 85-87
+5.5
21
vsSC
SCW 79-72
+3.5
23
vsUVA
UVAW 80-73
+13.5
28
vsWRST
WRSTW 94-69
+10.5
2
vsEMU
EMUW 84-68
−1.5
6
vsBOIS
BOISL 68-77
−11.5
13
vsPROV
PROVW 113-110
−0.5
16
@CONN
CONNL 60-79
−3.5
20
vsNU
NUW 61-58
−0.5
22
vsNJIT
NJITW 101-52
+16.5
30
@CREI
CREIL 85-89
+1.5
3
vsVILL
VILLL 67-85
−20.5
6
vsSJU
SJUL 70-84
−9.5
14
@XAV
XAVL 75-89
−15.5
17
@HALL
HALLW 77-66
+17.5
20
vsDEP
DEPW 87-80
−0.5
23
vsMARQ
MARQW 87-76
+5.5
28
@SJU
SJUL 70-92
−9.5
31
vsGTWN
GTWNL 64-77
−18.5
4
@PROV
PROVL 87-97
−7.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 55-70
−11.5
covered 11didn’t cover 13avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUSI
USIW 88-58
−10.5
8
vsIUIN
IUINW 112-80
−0.5
11
vsCHST
CHSTW 98-66
+5.5
15
@SMU
SMUL 85-87
+8.5
21
vsSC
SCW 79-72
+0.5
23
vsUVA
UVAW 80-73
−2.5
28
vsWRST
WRSTW 94-69
+12.5
2
vsEMU
EMUW 84-68
−1.5
6
vsBOIS
BOISL 68-77
−3.5
13
vsPROV
PROVW 113-110
+58.5
16
@CONN
CONNL 60-79
−5.5
20
vsNU
NUW 61-58
−35.5
22
vsNJIT
NJITW 101-52
+3.5
30
@CREI
CREIL 85-89
+17.5
3
vsVILL
VILLL 67-85
+2.5
6
vsSJU
SJUL 70-84
−8.5
14
@XAV
XAVL 75-89
+2.5
17
@HALL
HALLW 77-66
−1.5
20
vsDEP
DEPW 87-80
+19.5
23
vsMARQ
MARQW 87-76
+1.5
28
@SJU
SJUL 70-92
+3.5
31
vsGTWN
GTWNL 64-77
−8.5
4
@PROV
PROVL 87-97
+15.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 55-70
−30.5
over 13under 11avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UConn
22-2 overall · 12-1 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ St John's72–81
- Wvs Xavier92–60
- W@ Creighton85–58
- Wvs Providence87–81
- Wvs Villanova75–67
5 days since their last game.
Butler
13-11 overall · 4-9 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Marquette55–70
- L@ Providence87–97
- Lvs Georgetown64–77
- L@ St John's70–92
- Wvs Marquette87–76
4 days since their last game.