University Arena (MI) · at W Michigan · Conference game
Closing line
TOL -6.5✓ TOL covered by 4.5
TOL -6.5✓ TOL covered by 4.5Closing total154.5Over by 14.5
| TOL | This season | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| 10-12 | Record | 7-14 |
| 12-10 | ATS | 12-9 |
| 9-13 | O/U | 12-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TOL 81–76 WMU · ✓ TOL (66%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 50 | 40 | 90 |
| WMU | 41 | 38 | 79 |
1st half: TOL 50, WMU 41 (TOL by 9). The model had TOL by 3.0 and a total of 73.7 (actual 91).
Team stats
| TOL | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-54 59% | Field goals | 28-65 43% |
| 9-19 47% | 3-pointers | 9-26 35% |
| 17-28 61% | Free throws | 14-17 82% |
| 30 4 off | Rebounds | 36 12 off |
| 13 | Assists | 13 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 46 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 37 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 6-10 | 1-1 |
| Sean Craig F | 32 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Austin Parks C | 31 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 8-9 | 0-0 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 27 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| Mynor Strong G | 26 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 21 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 17 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-1 |
| Will James Jr. G | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Tyler Ode, Toby Nwokolo, London Praytor, Phoenix Glassnor, Chris Riddle
| WMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justice Williams G | 37 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 6-15 | 4-8 |
| Brady Swartz G | 27 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4-9 | 2-6 |
| Max Burton F | 26 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| EJ Ryans G | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Jayden Brewer G | 17 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey Lewis G | 21 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4-9 | 2-6 |
| Jalen Griffith G | 15 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Sharod Barnes G | 13 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Declan Peterson C | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Carson Vis G | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Michael Sulaka F | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nicholas Errica, Junior Sileu, Hudson Ward, Camden Thompson
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTOL -7.5
1 → WMU
CloseTOL -6.5
1 pt toward WMU
Total
Open155.5
▼ 1
Close154.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
TOL -278 · WMU +225
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TOL -7.5 · closed TOL -6.5 · moved 1 toward WMUmodel TOL -4.5
model TOL -4.5
Opened 155.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 1 downmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TOL -6.5 | TOL -4.7 | WMU +1.8 | L TOL covered |
| Total | 154.5 | 157.5 | Over 3.0 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | TOL 81.1 · WMU 76.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TOL -3.0 | TOL -9.0 |
| 1H total | 73.7 | 91 |
| 1H projected score | TOL 38.3 · WMU 35.4 | TOL 50 · WMU 41 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
| WMU | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
TOL 6–0 WMUTOL leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · TOL has won the last 6 meetings · TOL 5-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025-26 | WMU 79 @ TOL 84 | TOL -10.5 | WMU W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | TOL 76 @ WMU 70 | WMU +2.5 | TOL W |
| Jan 30, 2023-24 | WMU 63 @ TOL 88 | TOL -11.5 | TOL W |
| Jan 6, 2022-23 | WMU 74 @ TOL 102 | TOL -15.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 22, 2021-22 | TOL 92 @ WMU 50 | WMU +13 | TOL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Toledo
22 games played
Straight up
10-12
45% wins
Against the spread
12-10
55% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-13
41% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vsWMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @ CMU | W 78-75 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 6 | @ NIU | W 75-61 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 9 | vs M-OH | L 73-87 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs OHIO | W 101-85 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @ KENT | L 84-87 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 20 | @ MASS | L 82-84 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 24 | vs BGSU | W 73-72 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 27 | @ AKR | L 81-91 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | vs BALL | W 73-55 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 3 | vsKENT | L 72-75 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 161.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 7 | @ JMU | L 71-73 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−4.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
+6.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−15.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+13.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+0.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
+2.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+2.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
+9.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−1.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−3.5
covered 12didn’t cover 10avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−5.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
−25.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−6.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+24.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+1.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
−10.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+3.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
−18.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−14.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−9.5
over 9under 13avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
W Michigan
21 games played
Straight up
7-14
33% wins
Against the spread
12-9
57% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-9
57% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CCU | W 76-71 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 9 | @ CAM | L 82-91 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 12 | vs PFW | W 83-71 | +3.5 | W +15.5 | 161.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | @ SDAK | L 78-83 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 172.5 | U 161 |
| Nov 20 | @ OSU | L 58-91 | +26.5 | L −6.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 23 | vs MSM | W 83-60 | -1.5 | W +21.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 29 | @ VAL | L 55-84 | +4.5 | L −24.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 3 | vs USI | W 88-74 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 6 | @ SIUE | W 83-73 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 139.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 14 | @ IOWA | L 51-91 | +25.5 | L −14.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 20 | vs BUF | L 71-88 | +2.5 | L −14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 30 | @TOL | L 79-84 | +10.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 6 | @M-OH | L 76-87 | +14.5 | W +3.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 10 | vs EMU | W 79-62 | +1.5 | W +18.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 13 | vsMASS | L 82-85 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 17 | @AKR | L 89-104 | +21.5 | W +6.5 | 163.5 | O 193 |
| Jan 20 | vsBGSU | L 54-72 | +6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 24 | vsCMU | W 77-65 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 27 | @NIU | L 65-85 | +1.5 | L −18.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 3 | @OHIO | L 71-91 | +10.5 | L −9.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 7 | @ TXST | L 61-77 | +6.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCCU
CCUW 76-71
+2.5
9
@CAM
CAML 82-91
+0.5
12
vsPFW
PFWW 83-71
+15.5
16
@SDAK
SDAKL 78-83
−1.5
20
@OSU
OSUL 58-91
−6.5
23
vsMSM
MSMW 83-60
+21.5
29
@VAL
VALL 55-84
−24.5
3
vsUSI
USIW 88-74
+8.5
6
@SIUE
SIUEW 83-73
+15.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 51-91
−14.5
20
vsBUF
BUFL 71-88
−14.5
30
@TOL
TOLL 79-84
+5.5
6
@M-OH
M-OHL 76-87
+3.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 79-62
+18.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 82-85
+2.5
17
@AKR
AKRL 89-104
+6.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 54-72
−11.5
24
vsCMU
CMUW 77-65
+6.5
27
@NIU
NIUL 65-85
−18.5
3
@OHIO
OHIOL 71-91
−9.5
7
@TXST
TXSTL 61-77
−9.5
covered 12didn’t cover 9avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCCU
CCUW 76-71
+0.5
9
@CAM
CAML 82-91
+20.5
12
vsPFW
PFWW 83-71
−7.5
16
@SDAK
SDAKL 78-83
−11.5
20
@OSU
OSUL 58-91
−10.5
23
vsMSM
MSMW 83-60
−7.5
29
@VAL
VALL 55-84
−7.5
3
vsUSI
USIW 88-74
+11.5
6
@SIUE
SIUEW 83-73
+16.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 51-91
+4.5
20
vsBUF
BUFL 71-88
+8.5
30
@TOL
TOLL 79-84
+2.5
6
@M-OH
M-OHL 76-87
+2.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 79-62
−4.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 82-85
+9.5
17
@AKR
AKRL 89-104
+29.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 54-72
−26.5
24
vsCMU
CMUW 77-65
−6.5
27
@NIU
NIUL 65-85
+3.5
3
@OHIO
OHIOL 71-91
+6.5
7
@TXST
TXSTL 61-77
−8.5
over 12under 9avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Toledo
10-12 overall · 6-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ James Madison71–73
- Lvs Kent State72–75
- Wvs Ball State73–55
- L@ Akron81–91
- Wvs Bowling Green73–72
4 days since their last game.
W Michigan
7-14 overall · 2-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Texas St61–77
- L@ Ohio71–91
- L@ N Illinois65–85
- Wvs C Michigan77–65
- Lvs Bowling Green54–72
4 days since their last game.