Convocation Center (OH) · at Ohio · Conference game
Closing line
OHIO -4.5✓ OHIO covered by 6.5
OHIO -4.5✓ OHIO covered by 6.5Closing total156.5Over by 14.5
 BUF | This season | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2 | Record | 7-7 |
| 10-3 | ATS | 6-8 |
| 7-6 | O/U | 7-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BUF 76–81 OHIO · ✓ OHIO (69%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 47 | 33 | 80 |
| OHIO | 44 | 47 | 91 |
1st half: BUF 47, OHIO 44 (BUF by 3). The model had OHIO by 3.3 and a total of 73.5 (actual 91).
Team stats
| BUF | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-67 43% | Field goals | 34-57 60% |
| 8-25 32% | 3-pointers | 6-17 35% |
| 14-22 64% | Free throws | 17-20 85% |
| 26 15 off | Rebounds | 39 11 off |
| 10 | Assists | 15 |
| 10 | Steals | 7 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 18 | Fouls | 20 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sabol G | 37 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 4-15 | 2-9 |
| Daniel Freitag G | 35 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 6-14 | 1-4 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 35 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 8-16 | 1-4 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 26 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Tim Oboh F | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 24 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3-7 | 2-4 |
| Ezra McKenna F | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 14 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Evan Romano, Daniel Shao, Aleksa Vlajic, Kyle Jones, Matas Buteliauskas, Omar Migues-Hibeljic
| OHIO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Paveletzke G | 38 | 23 | 6 | 8 | 8-12 | 1-2 |
| Aidan Hadaway F | 34 | 27 | 10 | 2 | 11-17 | 3-6 |
| Javan Simmons F | 32 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| JJ Kelly G | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 6-10 | 0-3 |
| Ajay Sheldon G | 31 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jesse Burris G | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Dior Conners G | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Breath F | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kiir Kuany F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Zay Mosley, Carter Reese, Jordan Fisher, Chase Boals, Elijah Elliott, Ayden Evans
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketOHIO -4.5
ModelOHIO -5.8
Model edgeOHIO +1.3
W OHIO covered
Total
Market156.5
Model157.1
Model edgeOver 0.6
W Over
Projected score
BUF 75.6 · OHIO 81.4
BUF 80 · OHIO 91
Win probability
OHIO 69%
1st half
Spread
OHIO -3.3
BUF -3.0
Total
73.5
91 points
Projected score
BUF 35.1 · OHIO 38.4
BUF 47 · OHIO 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenOHIO -4.5
no move
CloseOHIO -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open153.5
▲ 3
Close156.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
BUF +185 · OHIO -225
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened OHIO -4.5 · unchangedmodel OHIO -6
model OHIO -6
Opened 153.5 · closed 156.5 · moved 3 upmodel 157
model 157
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| OHIO | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
BUF 1–5 OHIOOHIO leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · OHIO has won the last 4 meetings · BUF 2-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2024-25 | OHIO 88 @ BUF 79 | BUF +12.5 | BUF W |
| Mar 5, 2023-24 | OHIO 78 @ BUF 66 | BUF +11.5 | OHIO W |
| Jan 30, 2023-24 | BUF 70 @ OHIO 91 | OHIO -13.5 | OHIO W |
| Feb 14, 2022-23 | BUF 61 @ OHIO 85 | OHIO -4.5 | OHIO W |
| Jan 3, 2022-23 | OHIO 72 @ BUF 75 | BUF -0.5 | BUF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
13 games played
Straight up
11-2
85% wins
Against the spread
10-3
77% covers · avg +5.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @ WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @ NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vs BALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
covered 10didn’t cover 3avg +5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
over 7under 6avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Ohio
14 games played
Straight up
7-7
50% wins
Against the spread
6-8
43% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-7
50% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARST | L 85-89 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 6 | vs ILST | W 72-68 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 11 | @ SMC | L 60-90 | +17.5 | L −12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 15 | @ LOU | L 81-106 | +31.5 | W +6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 19 | vs BCU | L 73-76 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs GMU | L 69-92 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 142.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 25 | vs LMU | L 58-70 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 3 | vs ME | W 79-57 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | vs MRSH | W 88-81 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 13 | vsSBU | W 88-83 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs BGSU | L 58-68 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | @ CMU | W 80-64 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 3 | @ EMU | W 68-67 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | vs MASS | W 86-83 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
−7.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
+2.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
−12.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+6.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−9.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
−15.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−8.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
+9.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+3.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+11.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−8.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
+9.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−1.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
−1.5
covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
+14.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
−21.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
+5.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+12.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−8.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
+18.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−16.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
−2.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+11.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+20.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−27.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
−7.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−15.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
+8.5
over 7under 7avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo
11-2 overall · 3-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Ball State85–72
- W@ N Illinois81–67
- W@ W Michigan88–71
- L@ East Carolina70–73
- W@ UMBC83–79
A week or more of rest.
Ohio
7-7 overall · 3-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UMass86–83
- W@ E Michigan68–67
- W@ C Michigan80–64
- Lvs Bowling Green58–68
- Wvs St Bonaventure88–83
4 days since their last game.