McKenzie Arena · at Chattanooga · Conference game
Closing line
UTC -11.5✓ VMI covered by 4.5
UTC -11.5✓ VMI covered by 4.5Closing total154.5Over by 10.5
 VMI | This season | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| 3-24 | Record | 9-18 |
| 8-19 | ATS | 12-15 |
| 12-15 | O/U | 14-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VMI 70–81 UTC · ✓ UTC (84%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 33 | 46 | 79 |
| UTC | 42 | 44 | 86 |
1st half: VMI 33, UTC 42 (UTC by 9). The model had UTC by 6.7 and a total of 70.4 (actual 75).
Team stats
| VMI | UTC | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-62 42% | Field goals | 34-68 50% |
| 13-38 34% | 3-pointers | 12-31 39% |
| 14-21 67% | Free throws | 6-8 75% |
| 34 10 off | Rebounds | 36 10 off |
| 11 | Assists | 13 |
| 2 | Steals | 0 |
| 2 | Blocks | 0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| VMI | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Johnson F | 40 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 7-17 | 6-14 |
| Tan Yildizoglu G | 39 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
| Cal Liston F | 38 | 21 | 9 | 2 | 8-16 | 2-8 |
| Linus Holmstrom G | 30 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Walker Andrews G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kaden Stuckey F | 28 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Mario Tatum Jr. G | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
Did not play: Mason Hagedorn, Robert Peters, AJ Clark, Jaylen Pazon, Rickey Bradley Jr., Alexander Daushvili, Branford Edmonds III, Mason Lawson
| UTC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brennan Watkins G | 35 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2-11 | 1-5 |
| Billy Smith G | 31 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 5-12 | 5-11 |
| Teddy Washington Jr. G | 15 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 2-6 |
| Makai Richards C | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jikari Johnson G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tate Darner G | 35 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Jordan Frison G | 34 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 14-18 | 3-4 |
| Collin Mulholland F | 28 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 6-10 | 0-1 |
| Houston Holland G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Liam Vitters, Latif Diouf, Parker Robison, Ryan Lopez, Sean Cusano, Zach Bleshoy, Sebastian Hartmann, Josh Bowman
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUTC -11.5
ModelUTC -11.4
Model edgeVMI +0.1
W VMI covered
Total
Market154.5
Model150.5
Model edgeUnder 4.0
L Over
Projected score
VMI 69.5 · UTC 81
VMI 79 · UTC 86
Win probability
UTC 84%
1st half
Spread
UTC -6.7
UTC -9.0
Total
70.4
75 points
Projected score
VMI 31.9 · UTC 38.5
VMI 33 · UTC 42
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUTC -11.5
no move
CloseUTC -11.5
No change since the open
Total
Open152.5
▲ 2
Close154.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
VMI +525 · UTC -750
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UTC -11.5 · unchangedmodel UTC -11.5 matches the line
model UTC -11.5 = line ✓
Opened 152.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 2 upmodel 150.5
model 150.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 0-10 0% | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% |
| UTC | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
VMI 2–8 UTCUTC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · VMI 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2025-26 | UTC 71 @ VMI 79 | VMI +6.5 | VMI W |
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | UTC 91 @ VMI 70 | VMI +9.5 | UTC W |
| Jan 12, 2024-25 | VMI 66 @ UTC 91 | UTC -13.5 | UTC W |
| Feb 8, 2023-24 | UTC 88 @ VMI 84 | VMI +15.5 | VMI W |
| Jan 11, 2023-24 | VMI 61 @ UTC 109 | UTC -16.5 | UTC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
VMI
27 games played
Straight up
3-24
11% wins
Against the spread
8-19
30% covers · avg −5.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-15
44% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ USI | W 78-74 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 9 | @ MIZ | L 68-106 | +23.5 | L −14.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 15 | vs JAX | L 67-69 | +1.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 19 | @ RICH | L 54-87 | +14.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 22 | @ STET | L 80-99 | -2.5 | L −21.5 | 148.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 24 | vs BUF | L 70-78 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BGSU | L 48-81 | +11.5 | L −21.5 | 148.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 29 | @ UCF | L 57-82 | +25.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 9 | vs L-MD | W 86-70 | +2.5 | W +18.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 21 | @ RAD | L 90-97 | +11.5 | W +4.5 | 158.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 1 | vs SAM | L 58-78 | +6.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 3 | vsUTC | W 79-71 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 7 | @ ETSU | L 67-81 | +16.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @ FUR | L 48-69 | +12.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 15 | vs MER | L 67-77 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs CIT | L 68-82 | -6.5 | L −20.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 21 | vs UNCG | L 78-85 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 151.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 24 | @ WCU | L 58-88 | +8.5 | L −21.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 29 | @CIT | L 56-80 | +2.5 | L −21.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 31 | @MER | L 81-95 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 4 | vs WOF | L 67-81 | +8.5 | L −5.5 | 149.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 7 | vsETSU | L 70-87 | +14.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 11 | @UNCG | L 71-92 | +8.5 | L −12.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 14 | vsFUR | L 72-90 | +11.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 18 | @WOF | L 76-82 | +13.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | U 158 |
| Feb 21 | vsWCU | L 62-81 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 26 | @SAM | L 61-80 | +17.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@USI
USIW 78-74
+1.5
9
@MIZ
MIZL 68-106
−14.5
15
vsJAX
JAXL 67-69
−0.5
19
@RICH
RICHL 54-87
−18.5
22
@STET
STETL 80-99
−21.5
24
vsBUF
BUFL 70-78
−2.5
26
vsBGSU
BGSUL 48-81
−21.5
29
@UCF
UCFL 57-82
+0.5
9
vsL-MD
L-MDW 86-70
+18.5
21
@RAD
RADL 90-97
+4.5
1
vsSAM
SAML 58-78
−13.5
3
vsUTC
UTCW 79-71
+14.5
7
@ETSU
ETSUL 67-81
+2.5
10
@FUR
FURL 48-69
−8.5
15
vsMER
MERL 67-77
−1.5
17
vsCIT
CITL 68-82
−20.5
21
vsUNCG
UNCGL 78-85
−4.5
24
@WCU
WCUL 58-88
−21.5
29
@CIT
CITL 56-80
−21.5
31
@MER
MERL 81-95
+4.5
4
vsWOF
WOFL 67-81
−5.5
7
vsETSU
ETSUL 70-87
−2.5
11
@UNCG
UNCGL 71-92
−12.5
14
vsFUR
FURL 72-90
−6.5
18
@WOF
WOFL 76-82
+7.5
21
vsWCU
WCUL 62-81
−10.5
26
@SAM
SAML 61-80
−1.5
covered 8didn’t cover 19avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@USI
USIW 78-74
−1.5
9
@MIZ
MIZL 68-106
+12.5
15
vsJAX
JAXL 67-69
−15.5
19
@RICH
RICHL 54-87
−11.5
22
@STET
STETL 80-99
+30.5
24
vsBUF
BUFL 70-78
−2.5
26
vsBGSU
BGSUL 48-81
−19.5
29
@UCF
UCFL 57-82
−20.5
9
vsL-MD
L-MDW 86-70
+4.5
21
@RAD
RADL 90-97
+28.5
1
vsSAM
SAML 58-78
−18.5
3
vsUTC
UTCW 79-71
+0.5
7
@ETSU
ETSUL 67-81
+1.5
10
@FUR
FURL 48-69
−32.5
15
vsMER
MERL 67-77
−9.5
17
vsCIT
CITL 68-82
+6.5
21
vsUNCG
UNCGL 78-85
+11.5
24
@WCU
WCUL 58-88
−6.5
29
@CIT
CITL 56-80
−6.5
31
@MER
MERL 81-95
+22.5
4
vsWOF
WOFL 67-81
−1.5
7
vsETSU
ETSUL 70-87
+13.5
11
@UNCG
UNCGL 71-92
+12.5
14
vsFUR
FURL 72-90
+13.5
18
@WOF
WOFL 76-82
−0.5
21
vsWCU
WCUL 62-81
−11.5
26
@SAM
SAML 61-80
−14.5
over 12under 15avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Chattanooga
27 games played
Straight up
9-18
33% wins
Against the spread
12-15
44% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-13
52% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ SMC | L 66-87 | +15.5 | L −5.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 8 | @ UNLV | L 69-101 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 155.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 15 | @ FGCU | L 73-91 | -1.5 | L −19.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 19 | @ SCST | W 78-66 | -11.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNA | W 71-57 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 30 | vs TNST | L 64-70 | -8.5 | L −14.5 | 155.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 6 | vs SEMO | L 70-74 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 13 | vs AUB | L 78-92 | +19.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 17 | @ BELL | L 64-79 | -1.5 | L −16.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 21 | @ AAMU | W 73-66 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 1 | @UNCG | L 72-77 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 3 | @VMI | L 71-79 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 7 | vsFUR | L 67-78 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 10 | vsSAM | W 88-79 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 14 | @WOF | W 76-67 | +5.5 | W +14.5 | 154.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 17 | @WCU | W 90-82 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 150.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 21 | vsETSU | L 66-67 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 24 | @SAM | L 64-75 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 29 | vsWOF | L 55-81 | -1.5 | L −27.5 | 150.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 1 | @FUR | L 70-75 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 5 | vsMER | W 79-75 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Feb 7 | vsCIT | L 71-78 | -9.5 | L −16.5 | 142.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 11 | @ETSU | L 61-73 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 14 | vsWCU | L 76-81 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 19 | @MER | W 94-90 | +10.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 21 | @CIT | W 93-72 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 26 | vsUNCG | L 80-85 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 157.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@SMC
SMCL 66-87
−5.5
8
@UNLV
UNLVL 69-101
−24.5
15
@FGCU
FGCUL 73-91
−19.5
19
@SCST
SCSTW 78-66
+0.5
22
vsUNA
UNAW 71-57
+4.5
30
vsTNST
TNSTL 64-70
−14.5
6
vsSEMO
SEMOL 70-74
−7.5
13
vsAUB
AUBL 78-92
+5.5
17
@BELL
BELLL 64-79
−16.5
21
@AAMU
AAMUW 73-66
+4.5
1
@UNCG
UNCGL 72-77
−7.5
3
@VMI
VMIL 71-79
−14.5
7
vsFUR
FURL 67-78
−8.5
10
vsSAM
SAMW 88-79
+7.5
14
@WOF
WOFW 76-67
+14.5
17
@WCU
WCUW 90-82
+9.5
21
vsETSU
ETSUL 66-67
+3.5
24
@SAM
SAML 64-75
−6.5
29
vsWOF
WOFL 55-81
−27.5
1
@FUR
FURL 70-75
+2.5
5
vsMER
MERW 79-75
+8.5
7
vsCIT
CITL 71-78
−16.5
11
@ETSU
ETSUL 61-73
−1.5
14
vsWCU
WCUL 76-81
−6.5
19
@MER
MERW 94-90
+14.5
21
@CIT
CITW 93-72
+16.5
26
vsUNCG
UNCGL 80-85
−9.5
covered 12didn’t cover 15avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@SMC
SMCL 66-87
+7.5
8
@UNLV
UNLVL 69-101
+14.5
15
@FGCU
FGCUL 73-91
+11.5
19
@SCST
SCSTW 78-66
−10.5
22
vsUNA
UNAW 71-57
−21.5
30
vsTNST
TNSTL 64-70
−21.5
6
vsSEMO
SEMOL 70-74
−5.5
13
vsAUB
AUBL 78-92
+19.5
17
@BELL
BELLL 64-79
−3.5
21
@AAMU
AAMUW 73-66
+0.5
1
@UNCG
UNCGL 72-77
+1.5
3
@VMI
VMIL 71-79
+0.5
7
vsFUR
FURL 67-78
−1.5
10
vsSAM
SAMW 88-79
+18.5
14
@WOF
WOFW 76-67
−11.5
17
@WCU
WCUW 90-82
+21.5
21
vsETSU
ETSUL 66-67
−10.5
24
@SAM
SAML 64-75
−13.5
29
vsWOF
WOFL 55-81
−14.5
1
@FUR
FURL 70-75
−1.5
5
vsMER
MERW 79-75
−1.5
7
vsCIT
CITL 71-78
+6.5
11
@ETSU
ETSUL 61-73
−11.5
14
vsWCU
WCUL 76-81
+5.5
19
@MER
MERW 94-90
+32.5
21
@CIT
CITW 93-72
+20.5
26
vsUNCG
UNCGL 80-85
+7.5
over 14under 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
VMI
3-24 overall · 1-16 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Samford61–80
- Lvs W Carolina62–81
- L@ Wofford76–82
- Lvs Furman72–90
- L@ UNC Greensboro71–92
2 days since their last game.
Chattanooga
9-18 overall · 6-11 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UNC Greensboro80–85
- W@ The Citadel93–72
- W@ Mercer94–90
- Lvs W Carolina76–81
- L@ ETSU61–73
2 days since their last game.