Cam Henderson Center · at Marshall · Conference game
Closing line
MRSH -10.5✓ USM covered by 6.5
MRSH -10.5✓ USM covered by 6.5Closing total148.5Over by 9.5
 USM | This season | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10-12 | Record | 13-8 |
| 8-14 | ATS | 8-13 |
| 12-10 | O/U | 10-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USM 73–79 MRSH · ✓ MRSH (69%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 38 | 39 | 77 |
| MRSH | 34 | 47 | 81 |
1st half: USM 38, MRSH 34 (USM by 4). The model had MRSH by 3.3 and a total of 70.7 (actual 72).
Team stats
| USM | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-56 41% | Field goals | 29-54 54% |
| 10-27 37% | 3-pointers | 8-23 35% |
| 21-30 70% | Free throws | 15-22 68% |
| 40 18 off | Rebounds | 30 9 off |
| 13 | Assists | 19 |
| 9 | Steals | 4 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 25 | Fouls | 22 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 20 |
Players
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djahi Binet F | 37 | 31 | 15 | 2 | 9-11 | 1-1 |
| Dylan Brumfield G | 32 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 3-10 | 0-1 |
| Israel Hart G | 26 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 4-11 | 3-8 |
| Tylik Weeks F | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Dalyn Brandon G | 17 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Curt Lewis G | 28 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Brewer Carruth G | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Fallou Diagne C | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Tegra Izay C | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jett Montgomery, Robert Cowherd, Isaac Taveras, IJ Ezuma, EJ Paymon, Blake Lander, Chandler Watts, Felipe Patino
| MRSH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Fricks F | 39 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 10-15 | 3-7 |
| Jalen Speer G | 37 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 6-13 | 3-7 |
| Noah Otshudi G | 37 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 5-10 | 0-1 |
| Erich Harding F | 29 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Caleb Hollenbeck G | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Wilson Dubinsky G | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-6 | 1-6 |
| Shamarrie Hugie G | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Landen Joseph G | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Drew Fuquay F | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Grant Moore, Kai Spears, Will Moore, Bryce Slay, Kaiden White, Matt Van Komen
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMRSH -10.5
ModelMRSH -5.8
Model edgeUSM +4.7
W USM covered
Total
Market148.5
Model151.1
Model edgeOver 2.6
W Over
Projected score
USM 72.7 · MRSH 78.5
USM 77 · MRSH 81
Win probability
MRSH 69%
1st half
Spread
MRSH -3.3
USM -4.0
Total
70.7
72 points
Projected score
USM 33.7 · MRSH 37
USM 38 · MRSH 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMRSH -8.5
2 → MRSH
CloseMRSH -10.5
2 pts toward MRSH
Total
Open147.5
▲ 1
Close148.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
USM +440 · MRSH -600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MRSH -8.5 · closed MRSH -10.5 · moved 2 toward MRSHmodel MRSH -6
model MRSH -6
Opened 147.5 · closed 148.5 · moved 1 upmodel 151
model 151
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| MRSH | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
USM 1–3 MRSHMRSH leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · USM 1-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2024-25 | MRSH 66 @ USM 68 | USM +3.5 | USM W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | USM 67 @ MRSH 83 | MRSH -3.5 | MRSH W |
| Jan 12, 2022-23 | USM 67 @ MRSH 89 | MRSH -7.5 | MRSH W |
| Feb 21, 2021-22 | MRSH 74 @ USM 60 | USM +6 | MRSH W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern Miss
22 games played
Straight up
10-12
45% wins
Against the spread
8-14
36% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-10
55% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs UL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 3 | @UL | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vs TXST | W 80-70 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vsULM | W 70-60 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | @ TROY | L 65-91 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | @TXST | L 67-74 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 22 | @ GAST | L 62-69 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 24 | @ CCU | L 67-85 | +2.5 | L −15.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 29 | vs APP | L 63-70 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 31 | vs JMU | W 73-65 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+3.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+7.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−4.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
−17.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
−4.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−5.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
−15.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−5.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
+6.5
covered 8didn’t cover 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+11.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+5.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−25.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
+10.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
+0.5
22
@GAST
GASTL 62-69
−13.5
24
@CCU
CCUL 67-85
+10.5
29
vsAPP
APPL 63-70
−1.5
31
vsJMU
JMUW 73-65
−5.5
over 12under 10avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Marshall
21 games played
Straight up
13-8
62% wins
Against the spread
8-13
38% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-11
48% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ MASS | W 78-72 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | @ TOL | W 85-73 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 12 | vs ELON | W 96-89 | -8.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 15 | @ UVA | L 78-104 | +20.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 20 | vs UAPB | W 98-70 | -20.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 23 | vs MERC | W 69-60 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 26 | vs LIP | L 67-90 | -7.5 | L −30.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 3 | @ UNCW | L 69-70 | +8.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 6 | @ OHIO | L 81-88 | +3.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 10 | vs WKU | W 77-61 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 159.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 13 | vs WRST | W 76-74 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 20 | @TROY | L 63-70 | +4.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 31 | vsGAST | W 84-80 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | vsAPP | W 88-81 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 7 | @JMU | W 66-64 | +1.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | @GAST | L 73-81 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 14 | vsCCU | L 83-85 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | vsJMU | W 77-72 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 22 | vsULM | W 115-60 | -18.5 | W +36.5 | 160.5 | O 175 |
| Jan 28 | @TXST | L 68-72 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 31 | @ARST | W 70-61 | +3.5 | W +12.5 | 165.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@MASS
MASSW 78-72
+10.5
8
@TOL
TOLW 85-73
+14.5
12
vsELON
ELONW 96-89
−1.5
15
@UVA
UVAL 78-104
−5.5
20
vsUAPB
UAPBW 98-70
+7.5
23
vsMERC
MERCW 69-60
−2.5
26
vsLIP
LIPL 67-90
−30.5
3
@UNCW
UNCWL 69-70
+7.5
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 81-88
−3.5
10
vsWKU
WKUW 77-61
+14.5
13
vsWRST
WRSTW 76-74
−1.5
20
@TROY
TROYL 63-70
−2.5
31
vsGAST
GASTW 84-80
−9.5
3
vsAPP
APPW 88-81
−0.5
7
@JMU
JMUW 66-64
+3.5
10
@GAST
GASTL 73-81
−12.5
14
vsCCU
CCUL 83-85
−11.5
17
vsJMU
JMUW 77-72
−1.5
22
vsULM
ULMW 115-60
+36.5
28
@TXST
TXSTL 68-72
−7.5
31
@ARST
ARSTW 70-61
+12.5
covered 8didn’t cover 13avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@MASS
MASSW 78-72
−2.5
8
@TOL
TOLW 85-73
−2.5
12
vsELON
ELONW 96-89
+29.5
15
@UVA
UVAL 78-104
+26.5
20
vsUAPB
UAPBW 98-70
+3.5
23
vsMERC
MERCW 69-60
−18.5
26
vsLIP
LIPL 67-90
−0.5
3
@UNCW
UNCWL 69-70
−11.5
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 81-88
+11.5
10
vsWKU
WKUW 77-61
−21.5
13
vsWRST
WRSTW 76-74
+0.5
20
@TROY
TROYL 63-70
−22.5
31
vsGAST
GASTW 84-80
+12.5
3
vsAPP
APPW 88-81
+27.5
7
@JMU
JMUW 66-64
−22.5
10
@GAST
GASTL 73-81
+0.5
14
vsCCU
CCUL 83-85
+16.5
17
vsJMU
JMUW 77-72
−0.5
22
vsULM
ULMW 115-60
+14.5
28
@TXST
TXSTL 68-72
−7.5
31
@ARST
ARSTW 70-61
−34.5
over 10under 11avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern Miss
10-12 overall · 6-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs James Madison73–65
- Lvs App State63–70
- L@ Coastal67–85
- L@ Georgia St62–69
- L@ Texas St67–74
4 days since their last game.
Marshall
13-8 overall · 6-4 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Arkansas St70–61
- L@ Texas St68–72
- Wvs UL Monroe115–60
- Wvs James Madison77–72
- Lvs Coastal83–85
4 days since their last game.