Mitchell Center · at South Alabama · Conference game
Closing line
USA -3.5✓ USA covered by 1.5
USA -3.5✓ USA covered by 1.5Closing total139.5Under by 38.5
 CCU | This season | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 12-9 | Record | 12-6 |
| 12-9 | ATS | 9-9 |
| 11-10 | O/U | 10-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CCU 69–74 USA · ✓ USA (68%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 24 | 24 | 48 |
| USA | 15 | 38 | 53 |
1st half: CCU 24, USA 15 (CCU by 9). The model had USA by 3.1 and a total of 66.9 (actual 39).
Team stats
| CCU | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-59 29% | Field goals | 21-54 39% |
| 10-43 23% | 3-pointers | 5-18 28% |
| 4-7 57% | Free throws | 6-10 60% |
| 42 12 off | Rebounds | 35 4 off |
| 13 | Assists | 11 |
| 2 | Steals | 4 |
| 5 | Blocks | 1 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 12 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 1 |
Players
| CCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dancler G | 37 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3-16 | 3-12 |
| Rasheed Jones G | 37 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3-11 | 3-10 |
| Joshua Beadle G | 35 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-13 | 2-7 |
| Reggie Hill F | 29 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 3-9 | 2-8 |
| Nadjrick Peat F | 28 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tristan Thompson G | 13 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Derrick Green F | 12 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| DaJohn Craig G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
Did not play: Charles Dunlap, Devin Brown, Jerry Ngopot, Jackson Keil, Braeden MacVicar, Connor Martin, Andre Mulibea
| USA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Olsen F | 38 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 6-19 | 2-7 |
| Chaze Harris G | 36 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7-14 | 0-0 |
| Randy Brady F | 35 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Hantz Louis-Jeune G | 35 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jayden Cooper G | 34 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 5-10 | 3-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| JJ Wheat G | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| John Broom G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Stephen Williams F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Peyton Law, Desmond Williams, Brian Hawthorne, Samuel Shoptaw, Maxwell Land
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSA -3.5
ModelUSA -5.3
Model edgeUSA +1.8
W USA covered
Total
Market139.5
Model142.8
Model edgeOver 3.3
L Under
Projected score
CCU 68.7 · USA 74.1
CCU 48 · USA 53
Win probability
USA 68%
1st half
Spread
USA -3.1
CCU -9.0
Total
66.9
39 points
Projected score
CCU 31.9 · USA 35
CCU 24 · USA 15
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSA -4.5
1 → CCU
CloseUSA -3.5
1 pt toward CCU
Total
Open137.5
▲ 2
Close139.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
CCU +154 · USA -185
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USA -4.5 · closed USA -3.5 · moved 1 toward CCUmodel USA -5.5
model USA -5.5
Opened 137.5 · closed 139.5 · moved 2 upmodel 143
model 143
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| USA | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
CCU 2–2 USASeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · CCU 2-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | USA 84 @ CCU 59 | CCU +7.5 | USA W |
| Jan 21, 2022-23 | USA 81 @ CCU 85 | CCU +3.5 | CCU W |
| Mar 28, 2021-22 | CCU 69 @ USA 68 | USA -1 | CCU W |
| Feb 17, 2021-22 | USA 71 @ CCU 68 | CCU +1 | USA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Coastal
21 games played
Straight up
12-9
57% wins
Against the spread
12-9
57% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-10
52% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ WMU | L 71-76 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 11 | vs WIN | W 72-66 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 14 | @ JXST | L 67-74 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 21 | @ WIU | W 84-64 | -3.5 | W +16.5 | 138.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs UND | W 75-58 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 23 | @ ILST | L 42-94 | +12.5 | L −39.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 30 | vs AAMU | W 67-60 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 3 | @ UPST | L 78-85 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 144.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 6 | @WIN | W 88-84 | +16.5 | W +20.5 | 153.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | @ GCU | L 61-82 | +17.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 18 | @ APP | L 49-67 | +4.5 | L −13.5 | 137.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | @ ODU | W 76-74 | +3.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 22 | @ JOES | W 68-62 | +7.5 | W +13.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 1 | vs GASO | L 81-82 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | vs GAST | L 71-89 | -6.5 | L −24.5 | 148.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 8 | vsODU | L 66-70 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 10 | vsAPP | W 67-62 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 133.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 14 | @ MRSH | W 85-83 | +9.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @GASO | W 79-75 | +6.5 | W +10.5 | 157.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 22 | vs TXST | W 72-70 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 24 | vs USM | W 85-67 | -2.5 | W +15.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@WMU
WMUL 71-76
−2.5
11
vsWIN
WINW 72-66
+8.5
14
@JXST
JXSTL 67-74
+0.5
21
@WIU
WIUW 84-64
+16.5
22
vsUND
UNDW 75-58
+13.5
23
@ILST
ILSTL 42-94
−39.5
30
vsAAMU
AAMUW 67-60
−0.5
3
@UPST
UPSTL 78-85
−4.5
6
@WIN
WINW 88-84
+20.5
13
@GCU
GCUL 61-82
−3.5
18
@APP
APPL 49-67
−13.5
20
@ODU
ODUW 76-74
+5.5
22
@JOES
JOESW 68-62
+13.5
1
vsGASO
GASOL 81-82
−2.5
3
vsGAST
GASTL 71-89
−24.5
8
vsODU
ODUL 66-70
−8.5
10
vsAPP
APPW 67-62
+6.5
14
@MRSH
MRSHW 85-83
+11.5
17
@GASO
GASOW 79-75
+10.5
22
vsTXST
TXSTW 72-70
+0.5
24
vsUSM
USMW 85-67
+15.5
covered 12didn’t cover 9avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@WMU
WMUL 71-76
+0.5
11
vsWIN
WINW 72-66
−27.5
14
@JXST
JXSTL 67-74
+1.5
21
@WIU
WIUW 84-64
+9.5
22
vsUND
UNDW 75-58
−14.5
23
@ILST
ILSTL 42-94
−10.5
30
vsAAMU
AAMUW 67-60
−13.5
3
@UPST
UPSTL 78-85
+18.5
6
@WIN
WINW 88-84
+18.5
13
@GCU
GCUL 61-82
−0.5
18
@APP
APPL 49-67
−21.5
20
@ODU
ODUW 76-74
+2.5
22
@JOES
JOESW 68-62
−14.5
1
vsGASO
GASOL 81-82
+5.5
3
vsGAST
GASTL 71-89
+11.5
8
vsODU
ODUL 66-70
−15.5
10
vsAPP
APPW 67-62
−4.5
14
@MRSH
MRSHW 85-83
+16.5
17
@GASO
GASOW 79-75
−3.5
22
vsTXST
TXSTW 72-70
+1.5
24
vsUSM
USMW 85-67
+10.5
over 11under 10avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
South Alabama
18 games played
Straight up
12-6
67% wins
Against the spread
9-9
50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-8
56% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TOL | W 76-74 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 6 | vs ALCN | W 76-70 | -18.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 13 | vs CMU | W 66-64 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 15 | vs COPP | W 72-62 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 133.5 | O 134 |
| Nov 19 | @JXST | W 71-65 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 135.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 21 | @ UAB | L 72-80 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 30 | @ UTSA | W 82-58 | -1.5 | W +22.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 2 | vs NMSU | W 77-75 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 5 | @ ETSU | L 65-91 | +7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 14 | vs UNT | L 57-58 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | U 115 |
| Dec 17 | @ ULM | W 96-92 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 20 | @TXST | L 65-67 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 31 | @ UL | W 63-58 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 127.5 | U 121 |
| Jan 3 | @ TROY | L 49-59 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 10 | vsGASO | W 87-71 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 15 | vs ARST | W 91-87 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 154.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 17 | vsUL | L 56-59 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 129.5 | U 115 |
| Jan 22 | @ JMU | W 90-83 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 138.5 | O 173 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
+4.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
−12.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−3.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
−8.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+8.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
−0.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
+22.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+4.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
−18.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−2.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
−5.5
20
@TXST
TXSTL 65-67
+1.5
31
@UL
ULW 63-58
+1.5
3
@TROY
TROYL 49-59
−0.5
10
vsGASO
GASOW 87-71
+13.5
15
vsARST
ARSTW 91-87
+8.5
17
vsUL
ULL 56-59
−12.5
22
@JMU
JMUW 90-83
+11.5
covered 9didn’t cover 9avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
−0.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
+4.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−12.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
+0.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+0.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
+2.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
−1.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+16.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
+12.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−20.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
+39.5
20
@TXST
TXSTL 65-67
−4.5
31
@UL
ULW 63-58
−6.5
3
@TROY
TROYL 49-59
−40.5
10
vsGASO
GASOW 87-71
+9.5
15
vsARST
ARSTW 91-87
+23.5
17
vsUL
ULL 56-59
−14.5
22
@JMU
JMUW 90-83
+34.5
over 10under 8avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Coastal
12-9 overall · 6-4 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Southern Miss85–67
- Wvs Texas St72–70
- W@ GA Southern79–75
- W@ Marshall85–83
- Wvs App State67–62
5 days since their last game.
South Alabama
12-6 overall · 5-3 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ James Madison90–83
- Lvs Louisiana56–59
- Wvs Arkansas St91–87
- Wvs GA Southern87–71
- L@ Troy49–59
A week or more of rest.