Kentucky Wildcats at Alabama Crimson Tide: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 12:00 PM ETColeman Coliseum · at Alabama · Conference game

#19UKKentucky74final

Final

#15ALAAlabama AP #1489▲ winner

Closing lineALA -5.5✓ ALA covered by 9.5

Closing total173.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Kentucky and Alabama
UK	This season	ALA
9-4	Record	10-3
6-7	ATS	6-7
6-7	O/U	7-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UK 84–90 ALA · ✓ ALA (69%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UK	34	40	74
ALA	50	39	89

1st half: UK 34, ALA 50 (ALA by 16). The model had ALA by 3.3 and a total of 81.7 (actual 84).

Team stats

UK		ALA
25-59 42%	Field goals	31-67 46%
4-19 21%	3-pointers	15-38 39%
20-29 69%	Free throws	12-16 75%
37 12 off	Rebounds	41 14 off
9	Assists	17
6	Steals	8
5	Blocks	3
12	Turnovers	10
19	Fouls	23
36	Points in paint	32
14	Fast-break points	4

Players

UK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Otega Oweh G	36	22	8	3	8-16	1-4
Denzel Aberdeen G	27	7	1	1	1-7	0-3
Mo Dioubate F	21	6	8	1	2-6	0-1
Collin Chandler G	18	3	2	1	1-4	1-2
Malachi Moreno C	16	4	4	0	2-2	0-0
Bench
Jaland Lowe G	27	21	3	2	8-16	1-5
Jayden Quaintance F	24	5	6	1	2-4	0-0
Kam Williams G	16	5	1	0	1-4	1-4
Brandon Garrison F	9	1	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jasper Johnson G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Andrija Jelavic, Zach Tow, Reece Potter, Trent Noah, Walker Horn, Braydon Hawthorne

ALA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aden Holloway G	34	26	4	5	7-11	6-8
Latrell Wrightsell Jr. G	32	5	1	1	2-10	1-7
Amari Allen G	31	11	9	3	4-8	3-4
Labaron Philon Jr. G	28	17	4	3	6-16	0-6
Aiden Sherrell F	9	3	3	2	1-3	0-2
Bench
Houston Mallette G	22	14	5	0	5-7	4-6
Noah Williamson C	18	10	4	2	5-7	0-1
Keitenn Bristow F	12	0	3	1	0-0	0-0
London Jemison F	11	3	4	0	1-3	1-2
Jalil Bethea G	3	0	0	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Jack Fagan, Klark James, Jacob Martin, Collins Onyejiaka, Taylor Bol Bowen, Preston Murphy Jr., Davion Hannah

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ALA -5.5	ALA -5.8	ALA +0.3	W ALA covered
Total	173.5	174.5	Over 1.0	L Under
Projected score	—	UK 84.4 · ALA 90.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ALA -3.3	ALA -16.0
1H total	81.7	84
1H projected score	UK 39.2 · ALA 42.5	UK 34 · ALA 50

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK LLWWL	6-7	46%	0-1	0-2
ALA WLLLW	6-7	46%	2-4	4-5

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK UOUUO	6-7	46%	9-4
ALA UUOUO	7-6	54%	10-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
ALA	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

UK 3–4 ALAALA leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · ALA has won the last 3 meetings · UK 3-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 14, 2024-25	UK 70 vs ALA 99	ALA -8.5	ALA W
Feb 22, 2024-25	UK 83 @ ALA 96	ALA -11.5	ALA W
Jan 18, 2024-25	ALA 102 @ UK 97	UK -2.5	ALA W
Feb 24, 2023-24	ALA 95 @ UK 117	UK -2.5	UK W
Jan 7, 2022-23	UK 52 @ ALA 78	ALA -4.5	ALA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kentucky

13 games played

Straight up

9-4

69% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-7

46% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-469%

W W L W L W W L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-746%

L W L W L W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-746%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 14	vsEIU	W 99-53	-35.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 18	vsMSU	L 66-83	-3.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsL-MD	W 88-46	-35.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 26	vsTNTC	W 104-54	-37.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsUNC	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 131
Dec 5	vsGONZ	L 59-94	+5.5	L −29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 9	vsNCCU	W 103-67	-42.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 13	vsIU	W 72-60	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsSJU	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 144
Dec 23	vsBELL	W 99-85	-34.5	L −20.5	152.5	O 184

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

EIU

W 99-53

+10.5

MSU

L 66-83

−20.5

L-MD

W 88-46

+6.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+12.5

UNC

L 64-67

−10.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−29.5

NCCU

W 103-67

−6.5

W 72-60

+8.5

SJU

W 78-66

+10.5

BELL

W 99-85

−20.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

EIU

W 99-53

+4.5

MSU

L 66-83

−3.5

L-MD

W 88-46

−25.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+0.5

UNC

L 64-67

−32.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−6.5

NCCU

W 103-67

+21.5

W 72-60

−24.5

SJU

W 78-66

−10.5

BELL

W 99-85

+31.5

over 6under 7avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Alabama

13 games played

Straight up

10-3

77% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-377%

W W L W L W W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-746%

L W L W L W W L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-654%

U O U U O O O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUND	W 91-62	-36.5	L −7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 8	@SJU	W 103-96	+4.5	W +11.5	172.5	O 199
Nov 13	vsPUR	L 80-87	-3.5	L −10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 19	vsILL	W 90-86	+2.5	W +6.5	180.5	U 176
Nov 24	vsGONZ	L 85-95	+4.5	L −5.5	178.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsUNLV	W 115-76	-13.5	W +25.5	181.5	O 191
Nov 26	vsMD	W 105-72	-14.5	W +18.5	166.5	O 177
Dec 3	vsCLEM	W 90-84	-8.5	L −2.5	165.5	O 174
Dec 7	vsUTSA	W 97-55	-33.5	W +8.5	171.5	U 152
Dec 13	vsARIZ	L 75-96	+2.5	L −18.5	178.5	U 171
Dec 17	vsUSF	W 104-93	-14.5	L −3.5	178.5	O 197
Dec 21	vsKENN	W 92-81	-20.5	L −9.5	182.5	U 173
Dec 29	vsYALE	W 102-78	-15.5	W +8.5	171.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−7.5

SJU

W 103-96

+11.5

PUR

L 80-87

−10.5

ILL

W 90-86

+6.5

GONZ

L 85-95

−5.5

UNLV

W 115-76

+25.5

W 105-72

+18.5

CLEM

W 90-84

−2.5

UTSA

W 97-55

+8.5

ARIZ

L 75-96

−18.5

USF

W 104-93

−3.5

KENN

W 92-81

−9.5

YALE

W 102-78

+8.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−17.5

SJU

W 103-96

+26.5

PUR

L 80-87

−5.5

ILL

W 90-86

−4.5

GONZ

L 85-95

+1.5

UNLV

W 115-76

+9.5

W 105-72

+10.5

CLEM

W 90-84

+8.5

UTSA

W 97-55

−19.5

ARIZ

L 75-96

−7.5

USF

W 104-93

+18.5

KENN

W 92-81

−9.5

YALE

W 102-78

+8.5

over 7under 6avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kentucky @ Alabama

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kentucky

Alabama

Kentucky

Alabama