Jack Stephens Center · at Little Rock · Conference game
Closing line
UTM -2.5✓ LR covered by 4.5
UTM -2.5✓ LR covered by 4.5Closing total136.5Under by 4.5
| UTM | This season | LR |
|---|---|---|
| 17-8 | Record | 8-17 |
| 14-11 | ATS | 10-15 |
| 8-17 | O/U | 13-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UTM 69–66 LR · ✗ UTM (61%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTM | 32 | 33 | 65 |
| LR | 28 | 39 | 67 |
1st half: UTM 32, LR 28 (UTM by 4). The model had UTM by 1.9 and a total of 63.3 (actual 60).
Team stats
| UTM | LR | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-69 35% | Field goals | 25-51 49% |
| 10-35 29% | 3-pointers | 6-14 43% |
| 7-10 70% | Free throws | 11-18 61% |
| 45 25 off | Rebounds | 32 10 off |
| 17 | Assists | 12 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 7 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| UTM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matas Deniusas F | 30 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 2-11 | 0-6 |
| Andrija Bukumirovic F | 30 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 9-18 | 4-7 |
| Filip Petkovski G | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-7 |
| Pedro Santos G | 22 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Filip Radakovic G | 18 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Damien King G | 30 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| AJ Hopkins F | 19 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Vladimir Khryapa F | 17 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Afan Trnka G | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Ty Price, Ama Sow, Charlie King, James Bass, Enrique Moya, Will Hopkins, Luca Colceag, Lamine Niang, Lucas Williams, Dragos Lungu
| LR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnathan Lawson G | 40 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 4-9 | 2-4 |
| Braxton Bayless G | 39 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Kachi Nzeh F | 36 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7-14 | 3-5 |
| Tuongthach Gatkek F | 35 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Cameron Wallace F | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 9-13 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Caleb Pennyfeather F | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Truman Claytor IV F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Joseph Thomas G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: KK Robinson, Travonne Jackson, Tracy Steele Jr., Terrion Burgess, Khasen Robinson, Kellen Robinson, Christian Hughes
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUTM -2.5
ModelUTM -3.0
Model edgeUTM +0.5
L LR covered
Total
Market136.5
Model135.0
Model edgeUnder 1.5
W Under
Projected score
UTM 69 · LR 66
UTM 65 · LR 67
Win probability
UTM 61%
1st half
Spread
UTM -1.9
UTM -4.0
Total
63.3
60 points
Projected score
UTM 32.6 · LR 30.7
UTM 32 · LR 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUTM -2.5
no move
CloseUTM -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open133.5
▲ 3
Close136.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
UTM -142 · LR +120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UTM -2.5 · unchangedmodel UTM -3
model UTM -3
Opened 133.5 · closed 136.5 · moved 3 upmodel 135
model 135
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTM | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| LR | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
UTM 3–5 LRLR leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · UTM 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2025-26 | LR 52 @ UTM 55 | UTM -6.5 | LR W |
| Mar 6, 2024-25 | UTM 77 vs LR 82 | LR -5.5 | UTM W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | UTM 57 @ LR 75 | LR -4.5 | LR W |
| Jan 2, 2024-25 | LR 57 @ UTM 56 | UTM -1.5 | LR W |
| Feb 6, 2023-24 | UTM 57 @ LR 77 | LR -3 | LR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UT Martin
25 games played
Straight up
17-8
68% wins
Against the spread
14-11
56% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-17
32% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ UNLV | W 86-81 | +16.5 | W +21.5 | 146.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 12 | @ BRAD | W 78-67 | +15.5 | W +26.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 18 | @ FSU | L 73-87 | +19.5 | W +5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 22 | vs PV | W 69-68 | -10.5 | L −9.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 23 | vs USM | L 60-70 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 2 | vs CHSO | W 73-56 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 7 | vs ALST | W 74-64 | -6.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | @ SIU | L 54-83 | +8.5 | L −20.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 18 | @ TNST | L 71-78 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 20 | @ TNTC | W 86-62 | -2.5 | W +21.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 1 | vs WIU | W 67-60 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vs EIU | W 65-61 | -10.5 | L −6.5 | 133.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 8 | @ MORE | W 76-68 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 135.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ USI | W 73-56 | -5.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 15 | vs SIUE | W 65-59 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 131.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 17 | vs LIN | W 69-55 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 20 | @ SEMO | L 50-66 | +2.5 | L −13.5 | 140.5 | U 116 |
| Jan 29 | @EIU | W 76-68 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 129.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 31 | @WIU | W 84-44 | -10.5 | W +29.5 | 137.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 3 | vsLR | W 55-52 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 139.5 | U 107 |
| Feb 5 | vsUSI | W 76-54 | -10.5 | W +11.5 | 132.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 7 | vsMORE | L 55-61 | -8.5 | L −14.5 | 136.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 12 | @LIN | L 74-75 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 14 | @SIUE | W 81-76 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 17 | vsSEMO | L 53-56 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | U 109 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@UNLV
UNLVW 86-81
+21.5
12
@BRAD
BRADW 78-67
+26.5
18
@FSU
FSUL 73-87
+5.5
22
vsPV
PVW 69-68
−9.5
23
vsUSM
USML 60-70
−11.5
2
vsCHSO
CHSOW 73-56
+13.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 74-64
+3.5
10
@SIU
SIUL 54-83
−20.5
18
@TNST
TNSTL 71-78
−4.5
20
@TNTC
TNTCW 86-62
+21.5
1
vsWIU
WIUW 67-60
−6.5
3
vsEIU
EIUW 65-61
−6.5
8
@MORE
MOREW 76-68
+5.5
10
@USI
USIW 73-56
+11.5
15
vsSIUE
SIUEW 65-59
−1.5
17
vsLIN
LINW 69-55
+11.5
20
@SEMO
SEMOL 50-66
−13.5
29
@EIU
EIUW 76-68
+4.5
31
@WIU
WIUW 84-44
+29.5
3
vsLR
LRW 55-52
−3.5
5
vsUSI
USIW 76-54
+11.5
7
vsMORE
MOREL 55-61
−14.5
12
@LIN
LINL 74-75
+0.5
14
@SIUE
SIUEW 81-76
+3.5
17
vsSEMO
SEMOL 53-56
−5.5
covered 14didn’t cover 11avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@UNLV
UNLVW 86-81
+20.5
12
@BRAD
BRADW 78-67
+0.5
18
@FSU
FSUL 73-87
−5.5
22
vsPV
PVW 69-68
−18.5
23
vsUSM
USML 60-70
−16.5
2
vsCHSO
CHSOW 73-56
−18.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 74-64
−6.5
10
@SIU
SIUL 54-83
−9.5
18
@TNST
TNSTL 71-78
+7.5
20
@TNTC
TNTCW 86-62
+2.5
1
vsWIU
WIUW 67-60
−13.5
3
vsEIU
EIUW 65-61
−7.5
8
@MORE
MOREW 76-68
+8.5
10
@USI
USIW 73-56
−8.5
15
vsSIUE
SIUEW 65-59
−7.5
17
vsLIN
LINW 69-55
−23.5
20
@SEMO
SEMOL 50-66
−24.5
29
@EIU
EIUW 76-68
+14.5
31
@WIU
WIUW 84-44
−9.5
3
vsLR
LRW 55-52
−32.5
5
vsUSI
USIW 76-54
−2.5
7
vsMORE
MOREL 55-61
−20.5
12
@LIN
LINL 74-75
+3.5
14
@SIUE
SIUEW 81-76
+27.5
17
vsSEMO
SEMOL 53-56
−29.5
over 8under 17avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Little Rock
25 games played
Straight up
8-17
32% wins
Against the spread
10-15
40% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-12
52% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | @ MILW | L 72-92 | +3.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | @ MARQ | L 49-89 | +21.5 | L −18.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | @ BALL | W 68-62 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 18 | @ MUR | L 68-89 | +13.5 | L −7.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ TXST | L 56-65 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 131.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 29 | @SIU | L 65-74 | +13.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 3 | @ CARK | L 47-85 | +3.5 | L −34.5 | 138.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 6 | vs ARST | L 78-90 | +9.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 9 | @ WVU | L 58-90 | +27.5 | L −4.5 | 132.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | @MORE | L 64-78 | +2.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 18 | @USI | W 77-62 | -2.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 1 | vsTNTC | W 77-58 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 144.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 3 | vsTNST | L 79-84 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 144.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 8 | @SIUE | W 73-70 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 131.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | @LIN | W 82-74 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 15 | vsEIU | W 74-63 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 133.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 17 | vsWIU | W 86-79 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 135.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 22 | @SEMO | L 65-70 | +5.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 29 | @TNST | L 63-70 | +4.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 31 | @TNTC | L 77-87 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 141.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 3 | @UTM | L 52-55 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 139.5 | U 107 |
| Feb 5 | vsLIN | L 74-79 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 149.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 7 | vsSIUE | L 61-71 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 132.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 12 | @WIU | W 77-58 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 141.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 14 | @EIU | L 72-78 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 134.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
10
@MILW
MILWL 72-92
−16.5
12
@MARQ
MARQL 49-89
−18.5
15
@BALL
BALLW 68-62
+8.5
18
@MUR
MURL 68-89
−7.5
21
@TXST
TXSTL 56-65
−3.5
29
@SIU
SIUL 65-74
+4.5
3
@CARK
CARKL 47-85
−34.5
6
vsARST
ARSTL 78-90
−2.5
9
@WVU
WVUL 58-90
−4.5
16
@MORE
MOREL 64-78
−11.5
18
@USI
USIW 77-62
+12.5
1
vsTNTC
TNTCW 77-58
+17.5
3
vsTNST
TNSTL 79-84
−3.5
8
@SIUE
SIUEW 73-70
+6.5
10
@LIN
LINW 82-74
+14.5
15
vsEIU
EIUW 74-63
+4.5
17
vsWIU
WIUW 86-79
−3.5
22
@SEMO
SEMOL 65-70
+0.5
29
@TNST
TNSTL 63-70
−2.5
31
@TNTC
TNTCL 77-87
−11.5
3
@UTM
UTML 52-55
+3.5
5
vsLIN
LINL 74-79
−3.5
7
vsSIUE
SIUEL 61-71
−11.5
12
@WIU
WIUW 77-58
+11.5
14
@EIU
EIUL 72-78
−8.5
covered 10didn’t cover 15avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
10
@MILW
MILWL 72-92
+7.5
12
@MARQ
MARQL 49-89
−17.5
15
@BALL
BALLW 68-62
−16.5
18
@MUR
MURL 68-89
+3.5
21
@TXST
TXSTL 56-65
−10.5
29
@SIU
SIUL 65-74
−2.5
3
@CARK
CARKL 47-85
−6.5
6
vsARST
ARSTL 78-90
+20.5
9
@WVU
WVUL 58-90
+15.5
16
@MORE
MOREL 64-78
+5.5
18
@USI
USIW 77-62
−1.5
1
vsTNTC
TNTCW 77-58
−9.5
3
vsTNST
TNSTL 79-84
+18.5
8
@SIUE
SIUEW 73-70
+11.5
10
@LIN
LINW 82-74
+6.5
15
vsEIU
EIUW 74-63
+3.5
17
vsWIU
WIUW 86-79
+29.5
22
@SEMO
SEMOL 65-70
−10.5
29
@TNST
TNSTL 63-70
−17.5
31
@TNTC
TNTCL 77-87
+22.5
3
@UTM
UTML 52-55
−32.5
5
vsLIN
LINL 74-79
+3.5
7
vsSIUE
SIUEL 61-71
−0.5
12
@WIU
WIUW 77-58
−6.5
14
@EIU
EIUL 72-78
+15.5
over 13under 12avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UT Martin
17-8 overall · 12-5 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs SE Missouri53–56
- W@ SIUE81–76
- L@ Lindenwood Lions74–75
- Lvs Morehead St55–61
- Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles76–54
2 days since their last game.
Little Rock
8-17 overall · 7-9 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ E Illinois72–78
- W@ W Illinois77–58
- Lvs SIUE61–71
- Lvs Lindenwood Lions74–79
- L@ UT Martin52–55
5 days since their last game.