When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2025 · Week 8 · pick one to list those games
77% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 10% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 15% of games.
All 13 games
2025 · Week 8 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 8 |
KC -11.5 | 48.5 | 0142835 | U | KC Q3 | 7–28 |
2025 · Week 8 |
GB -2.5 | 45.5 | 10233360 | Q4 | GB Q4 | 35–25 |
2025 · Week 8 |
DEN -4.5 | 51.5 | 17374768 | Q4 | DEN Q1 | 24–44 |
2025 · Week 8 |
IND -14.5 | 47.5 | 10243852 | Q4 | IND Q3 Late over |
14–38 |
2025 · Week 8 |
TB -3.5 | 45.5 | 0102026 | U | TB Q2 | 23–3 |
2025 · Week 8 |
ATL -6.5 | 43.5 | 7202744 | Q4 | MIA Q1 | 34–10 |
2025 · Week 8 |
CIN -5.5 | 43.5 | 10374777 | Q3 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
39–38 |
2025 · Week 8 |
NE -6.5 | 40.5 | 10163745 | Q4 | NE Q3 | 13–32 |
2025 · Week 8 |
PHI -7.5 | 43.5 | 14313758 | Q4 | PHI Q2 | 20–38 |
2025 · Week 8 |
BUF -7.5 | 48.5 | 3224349 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 40–9 |
2025 · Week 8 |
BAL -2.5 | 44.5 | 6162246 | Q4 | BAL Q2 Late over |
16–30 |
2025 · Week 8 |
HOU -3.5 | 41.5 | 3233841 | U | HOU Q2 | 15–26 |
2025 · Week 8 |
LAC -3.5 | 44.5 | 7243447 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late over |
10–37 |
WSH
KC
GB
PIT
DAL
DEN
TEN
IND
TB
NO
MIA
ATL
NYJ
CIN
CLE
NE
NYG
PHI
BUF
CAR
CHI
BAL
SF
HOU
MIN
LACWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 23% 3
Q2 38% 5
Q3 23% 3
Q4 15% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 83% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 85% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 5 | 80% 4 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 50% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.