When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2025 · Week 13 · pick one to list those games
38% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 15% of games.
All 13 games
2025 · Week 13 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 13 |
NE -7 | 46.5 | 17373748 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
15–33 |
2025 · Week 13 |
DEN -6.5 | 43.5 | 320344053 | OT | WSH Q1 Late over |
27–26 |
2025 · Week 13 |
BUF -3 | 44.5 | 0102333 | U | BUF Q3 | 26–7 |
2025 · Week 13 |
LAC -9.5 | 40.5 | 7142845 | Q4 | LAC Q3 Late over |
14–31 |
2025 · Week 13 |
SEA -12.5 | 42.5 | 0131926 | U | SEA Q2 | 0–26 |
2025 · Week 13 |
SF -5.5 | 35.5 | 7182534 | U | SF Q3 | 26–8 |
2025 · Week 13 |
JAX -6 | 42.5 | 10212828 | U | JAX Q2 | 25–3 |
2025 · Week 13 |
IND -3.5 | 43.5 | 3162636 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–16 |
2025 · Week 13 |
ATL -3 | 38.5 | 0143151 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
24–27 |
2025 · Week 13 |
TB -4.5 | 45.5 | 0132737 | U | ARI Q4 Late cover flip |
17–20 |
2025 · Week 13 |
LAR -10 | 44.5 | 21384559 | Q3 | CAR Q1 | 28–31 |
2025 · Week 13 |
PHI -7 | 43.5 | 7131939 | U | CHI Q1 | 24–15 |
2025 · Week 13 |
BAL -7 | 52.5 | 10194046 | U | CIN Q1 | 32–14 |
NYG
NE
DEN
WSH
BUF
PIT
LV
LAC
MIN
SEA
SF
CLE
JAX
TEN
HOU
IND
ATL
NYJ
ARI
TB
LAR
CAR
CHI
PHI
CIN
BALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 46% 6
Q2 15% 2
Q3 23% 3
Q4 15% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 64% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 75% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.