When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2024 · Week 14 · pick one to list those games
46% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 38% of games.
All 13 games
2024 · Week 14 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 14 |
CIN -4.5 | 50.5 | 14273447 | U | CIN Q4 Late cover flip |
27–20 |
2024 · Week 14 |
KC -5.5 | 43.5 | 3132736 | U | LAC Q3 | 17–19 |
2024 · Week 14 |
BUF -3.5 | 50.5 | 14385986 | Q3 | LAR Q1 | 42–44 |
2024 · Week 14 |
SF -3.5 | 43.5 | 14243051 | Q4 | SF Q1 | 13–38 |
2024 · Week 14 |
ARI -3.5 | 45.5 | 24344548 | Q4 | SEA Q1 Late over |
30–18 |
2024 · Week 14 |
TEN -3.5 | 40.5 | 33616 | U | JAX Q4 | 10–6 |
2024 · Week 14 |
MIA -6.5 | 45.5 | 928385258 | Q4 | NYJ Q1 | 26–32 |
2024 · Week 14 |
MIN -5.5 | 46.5 | 14244263 | Q4 | MIN Q4 | 21–42 |
2024 · Week 14 |
NO -5.5 | 41.5 | 7101725 | U | NYG Q4 Late cover flip |
14–11 |
2024 · Week 14 |
PHI -13.5 | 44.5 | 3243038 | U | CAR Q1 | 16–22 |
2024 · Week 14 |
PIT -6.5 | 42.5 | 10203441 | U | PIT Q3 | 14–27 |
2024 · Week 14 |
TB -6.5 | 47.5 | 14242441 | U | TB Q4 | 13–28 |
2024 · Week 14 |
DET -3.5 | 53.5 | 7244565 | Q4 | GB Q3 | 31–34 |
CIN
DAL
LAC
KC
BUF
LAR
CHI
SF
SEA
ARI
JAX
TEN
NYJ
MIA
ATL
MIN
NO
NYG
CAR
PHI
CLE
PIT
LV
TB
GB
DETWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 38% 5
Q2 0% 0
Q3 23% 3
Q4 38% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 92% and covered 54% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 64% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.