When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2023 · Week 13 · pick one to list those games
69% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 15% of games.
All 13 games
2023 · Week 13 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
JAX -10 | 41 | 728496265 | Q3 | CIN Q1 | 34–31 |
2023 · Week 13 |
KC -6 | 44 | 10203346 | Q4 | GB Q1 Late over |
19–27 |
2023 · Week 13 |
LAR -3.5 | 39.5 | 17233355 | Q4 | LAR Q3 Late cover flip Late over |
19–36 |
2023 · Week 13 |
SF -3 | 46.5 | 6204161 | Q4 | SF Q2 | 42–19 |
2023 · Week 13 |
TB -3.5 | 37 | 7102439 | Q4 | CAR Q4 | 18–21 |
2023 · Week 13 |
IND -1 | 42 | 1730415059 | Q4 | IND OT Late cover flip |
31–28 |
2023 · Week 13 |
LAC -4.5 | 38.5 | 0666 | U | LAC Q2 | 6–0 |
2023 · Week 13 |
DET -4 | 48 | 21314861 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 33–28 |
2023 · Week 13 |
ATL -2 | 33 | 2152121 | U | ATL Q2 | 13–8 |
2023 · Week 13 |
PIT -6 | 41 | 6132034 | U | ARI Q1 | 24–10 |
2023 · Week 13 |
MIA -8.5 | 49.5 | 17385360 | Q3 | MIA Q1 | 45–15 |
2023 · Week 13 |
HOU -3 | 47 | 10162639 | U | HOU Q1 | 17–22 |
2023 · Week 13 |
DAL -9.5 | 47.5 | 17415576 | Q3 | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
35–41 |
CIN
JAX
KC
GB
CLE
LAR
SF
PHI
CAR
TB
IND
TEN
LAC
NE
DET
NO
ATL
NYJ
ARI
PIT
MIA
WSH
DEN
HOU
SEA
DALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 54% 7
Q2 23% 3
Q3 8% 1
Q4 8% 1
OT 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 83% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 85% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.