When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · Tennessee Titans · pick one to list those games
45% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 36% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · Tennessee Titans · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
JAX -3.5 | 41 | 10344148 | Q4 | TEN Q1 | 20–28 |
2023 · Week 17 |
HOU -5.5 | 44 | 3232629 | U | HOU Q2 | 3–26 |
2023 · Week 16 |
SEA -3 | 42.5 | 0131637 | U | Push | 20–17 |
2023 · Week 15 |
TEN -3 | 38 | 616223235 | U | HOU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
19–16 |
2023 · Week 14 |
MIA -13.5 | 44.5 | 7172355 | Q4 | TEN Q1 Late over Lead lost |
28–27 |
2023 · Week 13 |
IND -1 | 42 | 1730415059 | Q4 | IND OT Late cover flip |
31–28 |
2023 · Week 12 |
TEN -3.5 | 36 | 7202727 | U | TEN Q1 | 10–17 |
2023 · Week 11 |
JAX -6.5 | 40 | 7133448 | Q4 | JAX Q1 | 14–34 |
2023 · Week 10 |
TB -2.5 | 39 | 3102026 | U | TB Q2 | 6–20 |
2023 · Week 9 |
PIT -3 | 36 | 10232936 | P | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–20 |
2023 · Week 8 |
ATL -2.5 | 35 | 10173051 | Q4 | TEN Q1 | 23–28 |
2023 · Week 6 |
BAL -5.5 | 41.5 | 9213140 | U | BAL Q4 | 24–16 |
JAX
TEN
HOU
SEA
MIA
IND
CAR
TB
PIT
ATL
BALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 42% 5
Q2 17% 2
Q3 0% 0
Q4 25% 3
OT 8% 1
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 67% and covered 67% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 75% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 50% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.