When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · New York Jets · pick one to list those games
33% went over. Of the 4 overs, 25% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · New York Jets · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
NE -2.5 | 28.5 | 39920 | U | NYJ Q1 | 17–3 |
2023 · Week 17 |
CLE -7 | 33.5 | 27515157 | Q2 | CLE Q1 | 20–37 |
2023 · Week 16 |
NYJ -3 | 36 | 17344158 | Q3 | WSH Q4 Late cover flip |
28–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
MIA -7 | 35.5 | 7242730 | U | MIA Q2 | 0–30 |
2023 · Week 14 |
HOU -3 | 33.5 | 002036 | Q4 | NYJ Q1 Late over |
6–30 |
2023 · Week 13 |
ATL -2 | 33 | 2152121 | U | ATL Q2 | 13–8 |
2023 · Week 12 |
MIA -8.5 | 40 | 3232647 | Q4 | MIA Q2 Late over |
34–13 |
2023 · Week 11 |
BUF -8.5 | 39 | 6223538 | U | BUF Q2 | 6–32 |
2023 · Week 10 |
NYJ PK | 36.5 | 9151828 | U | LV Q4 | 12–16 |
2023 · Week 9 |
LAC -2 | 42 | 14202333 | U | LAC Q1 | 27–6 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NYJ -3 | 34.5 | 1010172023 | U | Push Late cover flip Lead lost |
13–10 |
2023 · Week 6 |
PHI -5.5 | 41.5 | 7232634 | U | NYJ Q2 Lead lost |
14–20 |
NYJ
NE
CLE
WSH
MIA
HOU
ATL
BUF
LV
LAC
NYG
PHIWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 33% 4
Q2 42% 5
Q3 0% 0
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 64% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.