When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · New York Giants · pick one to list those games
42% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 0% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · New York Giants · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
PHI -5 | 43 | 3242737 | U | NYG Q1 | 10–27 |
2023 · Week 17 |
LAR -6 | 43.5 | 7243651 | Q4 | NYG Q2 Late cover flip |
26–25 |
2023 · Week 16 |
PHI -14 | 41 | 10233858 | Q4 | NYG Q3 | 25–33 |
2023 · Week 15 |
NO -6 | 39.5 | 10132330 | U | NO Q3 | 6–24 |
2023 · Week 14 |
GB -5.5 | 37 | 7173446 | Q4 | NYG Q2 Late over |
22–24 |
2023 · Week 12 |
NE -4.5 | 36 | 071417 | U | NYG Q1 | 7–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
WSH -7.5 | 39 | 10232650 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Late over |
31–19 |
2023 · Week 10 |
DAL -17.5 | 39 | 7284966 | Q3 | DAL Q2 | 17–49 |
2023 · Week 9 |
LV -3 | 38.5 | 7242736 | U | LV Q1 | 6–30 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NYJ -3 | 34.5 | 1010172023 | U | Push Late cover flip Lead lost |
13–10 |
2023 · Week 7 |
WSH -3.5 | 36.5 | 0142121 | U | NYG Q1 | 7–14 |
2023 · Week 6 |
BUF -15.5 | 42.5 | 36623 | U | NYG Q1 Lead lost |
9–14 |
PHI
NYG
LAR
NO
GB
NE
WSH
DAL
LV
NYJ
BUFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 25% 3
Q3 17% 2
Q4 0% 0
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 67% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.