When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · New England Patriots · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 6 overs, 17% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 0% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · New England Patriots · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
NE -2.5 | 28.5 | 39920 | U | NYJ Q1 | 17–3 |
2023 · Week 17 |
BUF -15.5 | 40 | 20344148 | Q3 | NE Q1 | 21–27 |
2023 · Week 16 |
DEN -7 | 37.5 | 7103049 | Q4 | NE Q2 | 26–23 |
2023 · Week 15 |
KC -10 | 39.5 | 7243744 | Q4 | Push | 27–17 |
2023 · Week 14 |
PIT -5.5 | 30.5 | 10313139 | Q2 | NE Q1 | 21–18 |
2023 · Week 13 |
LAC -4.5 | 38.5 | 0666 | U | LAC Q2 | 6–0 |
2023 · Week 12 |
NE -4.5 | 36 | 071417 | U | NYG Q1 | 7–10 |
2023 · Week 10 |
IND -1 | 42.5 | 10101016 | U | IND Q1 | 10–6 |
2023 · Week 9 |
NE -2.5 | 40 | 3243737 | U | WSH Q3 | 20–17 |
2023 · Week 8 |
MIA -7.5 | 46.5 | 14243448 | Q4 | MIA Q2 Late cover flip Late over |
17–31 |
2023 · Week 7 |
BUF -7.5 | 39.5 | 10162654 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
25–29 |
2023 · Week 6 |
LV -3.5 | 40.5 | 3162638 | U | LV Q2 | 17–21 |
NYJ
NE
BUF
DEN
KC
PIT
LAC
NYG
IND
WSH
MIA
LVWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 33% 4
Q3 8% 1
Q4 0% 0
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 67% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 82% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.