When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · Minnesota Vikings · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 10% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · Minnesota Vikings · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
DET -3.5 | 47.5 | 13193350 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 20–30 |
2023 · Week 17 |
GB -1 | 42.5 | 10263343 | Q4 | GB Q1 | 33–10 |
2023 · Week 16 |
DET -2.5 | 48 | 14314454 | Q4 | DET Q4 | 30–24 |
2023 · Week 15 |
CIN -3 | 41.5 | 1010204851 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over |
24–27 |
2023 · Week 14 |
MIN -3 | 40.5 | 0003 | U | Push Late cover flip |
3–0 |
2023 · Week 12 |
MIN -3 | 43 | 06922 | U | CHI Q1 Lead lost |
12–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
DEN -2.5 | 43 | 3192641 | U | MIN Q2 Lead lost |
20–21 |
2023 · Week 10 |
NO -3 | 41 | 6273846 | Q4 | MIN Q1 | 19–27 |
2023 · Week 9 |
ATL -4.5 | 37.5 | 6214259 | Q3 | MIN Q1 | 31–28 |
2023 · Week 8 |
MIN PK | 41.5 | 7133434 | U | MIN Q1 | 24–10 |
2023 · Week 7 |
SF -6.5 | 44.5 | 7233639 | U | MIN Q1 | 17–22 |
2023 · Week 6 |
MIN -3.5 | 43.5 | 3182532 | U | MIN Q2 | 19–13 |
MIN
DET
GB
CIN
LV
CHI
DEN
NO
ATL
SFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 58% 7
Q2 17% 2
Q3 0% 0
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
Push 17% 2
The team leading at halftime won 70% and covered 80% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 80% and covered 90% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.