When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · Jacksonville Jaguars · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · Jacksonville Jaguars · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
JAX -3.5 | 41 | 10344148 | Q4 | TEN Q1 | 20–28 |
2023 · Week 17 |
JAX -3.5 | 38 | 391926 | U | JAX Q2 | 0–26 |
2023 · Week 16 |
JAX -1.5 | 43 | 3203642 | U | TB Q1 | 12–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
BAL -4 | 42.5 | 3101730 | U | BAL Q4 | 23–7 |
2023 · Week 14 |
CLE -2.5 | 37.5 | 7213558 | Q4 | CLE Q1 | 27–31 |
2023 · Week 13 |
JAX -10 | 41 | 728496265 | Q3 | CIN Q1 | 34–31 |
2023 · Week 12 |
JAX -1 | 48 | 3203545 | U | JAX Q1 | 24–21 |
2023 · Week 11 |
JAX -6.5 | 40 | 7133448 | Q4 | JAX Q1 | 14–34 |
2023 · Week 10 |
SF -3 | 44.5 | 10163037 | U | SF Q1 | 34–3 |
2023 · Week 8 |
JAX -2.5 | 41 | 6122730 | U | JAX Q1 | 20–10 |
2023 · Week 7 |
NO -1.5 | 40.5 | 10233355 | Q4 | JAX Q1 | 31–24 |
2023 · Week 6 |
JAX -3.5 | 43.5 | 3273757 | Q4 | JAX Q2 | 20–37 |
JAX
TEN
CAR
TB
BAL
CLE
CIN
HOU
SF
PIT
NO
INDWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 75% 9
Q2 17% 2
Q3 0% 0
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 100% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 92% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.