When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · Indianapolis Colts · pick one to list those games
67% went over. Of the 8 overs, 13% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · Indianapolis Colts · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
HOU -1.5 | 48 | 10203142 | U | HOU Q1 | 23–19 |
2023 · Week 17 |
IND -3.5 | 42.5 | 10172743 | Q4 | LV Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
20–23 |
2023 · Week 16 |
ATL -2.5 | 44 | 14203039 | U | ATL Q2 | 10–29 |
2023 · Week 15 |
IND -1 | 41.5 | 6273743 | Q4 | IND Q3 Late over |
13–30 |
2023 · Week 14 |
CIN -3 | 45 | 7284248 | Q4 | CIN Q3 Late over |
14–34 |
2023 · Week 13 |
IND -1 | 42 | 1730415059 | Q4 | IND OT Late cover flip |
31–28 |
2023 · Week 12 |
IND -2.5 | 44.5 | 13273047 | Q4 | IND Q1 Late over |
20–27 |
2023 · Week 10 |
IND -1 | 42.5 | 10101016 | U | IND Q1 | 10–6 |
2023 · Week 9 |
IND -2.5 | 45 | 0233040 | U | IND Q2 | 27–13 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NO -2 | 44 | 14414865 | Q3 | NO Q3 | 38–27 |
2023 · Week 7 |
CLE -3.5 | 40.5 | 21485877 | Q2 | IND Q3 Lead lost |
39–38 |
2023 · Week 6 |
JAX -3.5 | 43.5 | 3273757 | Q4 | JAX Q2 | 20–37 |
HOU
IND
LV
ATL
PIT
CIN
TEN
TB
NE
CAR
NO
CLE
JAXWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 25% 3
Q2 25% 3
Q3 33% 4
Q4 8% 1
OT 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 91% and covered 73% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 83% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 15–17 | 4 | 50% 2 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.