When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2023 · Dallas Cowboys · pick one to list those games
54% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 57% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.
All 13 games
2023 · Dallas Cowboys · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
DAL -7 | 52 | 7345780 | Q3 | GB Q1 | 48–32 |
2023 · Week 18 |
DAL -13 | 47 | 7314548 | Q4 | DAL Q3 Late over |
38–10 |
2023 · Week 17 |
DAL -4.5 | 53 | 10102039 | U | DET Q1 | 19–20 |
2023 · Week 16 |
MIA -1.5 | 48.5 | 10202942 | U | MIA Q2 | 20–22 |
2023 · Week 15 |
BUF -2.5 | 49 | 7242741 | U | BUF Q1 | 10–31 |
2023 · Week 14 |
DAL -3.5 | 52.5 | 10304046 | U | DAL Q1 | 13–33 |
2023 · Week 13 |
DAL -9.5 | 47.5 | 17415576 | Q3 | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
35–41 |
2023 · Week 12 |
DAL -13 | 48 | 7303055 | Q4 | DAL Q4 Late over |
10–45 |
2023 · Week 11 |
DAL -11 | 43.5 | 7202743 | U | DAL Q4 | 33–10 |
2023 · Week 10 |
DAL -17.5 | 39 | 7284966 | Q3 | DAL Q2 | 17–49 |
2023 · Week 9 |
PHI -3.5 | 46.5 | 14314551 | Q4 | PHI Q3 | 23–28 |
2023 · Week 8 |
DAL -7 | 44.5 | 20425363 | Q3 | DAL Q1 | 20–43 |
2023 · Week 6 |
DAL -1.5 | 49.5 | 14172037 | U | DAL Q4 Late cover flip |
20–17 |
GB
DAL
WSH
DET
MIA
BUF
PHI
SEA
CAR
NYG
LAR
LACWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 46% 6
Q2 15% 2
Q3 15% 2
Q4 23% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 85% and covered 85% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 91% and covered 100% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.