When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · Cincinnati Bengals · pick one to list those games
67% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · Cincinnati Bengals · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
CIN -7 | 37 | 14243145 | Q4 | CIN Q1 | 14–31 |
2023 · Week 17 |
KC -7.5 | 46 | 10303342 | U | KC Q4 Late cover flip |
17–25 |
2023 · Week 16 |
CIN -3 | 39 | 7244245 | Q3 | PIT Q1 | 11–34 |
2023 · Week 15 |
CIN -3 | 41.5 | 1010204851 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over |
24–27 |
2023 · Week 14 |
CIN -3 | 45 | 7284248 | Q4 | CIN Q3 Late over |
14–34 |
2023 · Week 13 |
JAX -10 | 41 | 728496265 | Q3 | CIN Q1 | 34–31 |
2023 · Week 12 |
PIT -2 | 36 | 0101726 | U | PIT Q3 | 16–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
BAL -3.5 | 46.5 | 10314054 | Q4 | BAL Q1 Late over |
20–34 |
2023 · Week 10 |
CIN -5.5 | 45.5 | 7173757 | Q4 | HOU Q2 Late over |
30–27 |
2023 · Week 9 |
CIN -2.5 | 48.5 | 21283142 | U | CIN Q1 | 18–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
SF -4.5 | 44 | 21242748 | Q4 | CIN Q1 Late over |
31–17 |
2023 · Week 6 |
CIN -1.5 | 45.5 | 14242730 | U | CIN Q4 | 13–17 |
CLE
CIN
KC
PIT
MIN
IND
JAX
BAL
HOU
BUF
SF
SEAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 8% 1
Q3 17% 2
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 70% and covered 70% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 75% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 22+ | 1 | 100% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.