When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · Carolina Panthers · pick one to list those games
25% went over. Of the 3 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 42% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · Carolina Panthers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
TB -4.5 | 36.5 | 0669 | U | TB Q2 | 9–0 |
2023 · Week 17 |
JAX -3.5 | 38 | 391926 | U | JAX Q2 | 0–26 |
2023 · Week 16 |
GB -3.5 | 39.5 | 10333963 | Q4 | CAR Q4 Late cover flip |
33–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
ATL -2.5 | 32.5 | 0101016 | U | CAR Q4 Lead lost |
7–9 |
2023 · Week 14 |
NO -5.5 | 38.5 | 0172034 | U | NO Q2 | 6–28 |
2023 · Week 13 |
TB -3.5 | 37 | 7102439 | Q4 | CAR Q4 | 18–21 |
2023 · Week 12 |
TEN -3.5 | 36 | 7202727 | U | TEN Q1 | 10–17 |
2023 · Week 11 |
DAL -11 | 43.5 | 7202743 | U | DAL Q4 | 33–10 |
2023 · Week 10 |
CHI -3.5 | 38 | 10192629 | U | CAR Q4 | 13–16 |
2023 · Week 9 |
IND -2.5 | 45 | 0233040 | U | IND Q2 | 27–13 |
2023 · Week 8 |
HOU -3.5 | 43 | 0132528 | U | CAR Q1 Lead lost |
13–15 |
2023 · Week 6 |
MIA -13.5 | 46.5 | 14354263 | Q4 | MIA Q3 | 21–42 |
TB
CAR
JAX
GB
ATL
NO
TEN
DAL
CHI
IND
HOU
MIAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 17% 2
Q2 33% 4
Q3 8% 1
Q4 42% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 67% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 58% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.