1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · College

College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

UConn ✕

When did they go over?

13 games · 2025 · UConn · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games13100%By halftime18%In Q3215%In Q4538%In OT18%Stayed under431%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed217%Leader lost the game325%
69% went over. Of the 9 overs, 11% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.

All 13 games

2025 · UConn · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2025 · Postseason
 ARMY -7.5 41.5 14243757 Q4 ARMY Q3 16–41
2025 · Week 13
 CONN -5.5 64.5 27446593 Q3 FAU Q3 48–45
2025 · Week 12
 CONN -7.5 64.5 13162642 U CONN Q4 16–26
2025 · Week 11
 DUKE -7.5 62.5 17345171 Q4 CONN Q1
Lead lost
 34–37
2025 · Week 10
 CONN -10.5 61.5 7244457 U CONN Q2 19–38
2025 · Week 9
 CONN -9.5 48.5 1038414871 OT RICE Q1
Late over
 34–37
2025 · Week 8
 CONN -2.5 58.5 13375161 Q4 CONN Q3 38–23
2025 · Week 6
 CONN -6.5 51.5 14304761 Q4 CONN Q1 10–51
2025 · Week 5
 CONN -2.5 51.5 0142737 U CONN Q3 20–17
2025 · Week 4
 CONN -20.5 53.5 10172756 Q4 BALL Q1
Late over
 25–31
2025 · Week 3
 CONN -9.5 51.5 2452667685 Q2 DEL Q1
Lead lost
 41–44
2025 · Week 2
 SYR -7.5 57.5 020234047 U CONN Q1
Lead lost
 20–27
CCSU @ CONN
2025 · Week 1
 CONN -29.5 51.5 21455872 Q3 CONN Q3 13–59
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 46% 6
Q2 8% 1
Q3 38% 5
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 67% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 77% and covered 69% of 13 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over3100% 3
4–72100% 2
8–102100% 2
11–141100% 1
18–2110% 0
22+425% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.