When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2025 · Toledo · pick one to list those games
54% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 15% of games.
All 13 games
2025 · Toledo · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
LOU -11.5 | 44.5 | 10101749 | Q4 | TOL Q1 Late over |
22–27 |
2025 · Week 14 |
TOL -10.5 | 46.5 | 031024 | U | TOL Q4 | 21–3 |
2025 · Week 13 |
TOL -28.5 | 45.5 | 14273447 | Q4 | TOL Q4 Late over |
9–38 |
2025 · Week 12 |
TOL -6.5 | 44.5 | 0142727 | U | TOL Q2 | 24–3 |
2025 · Week 11 |
TOL -15.5 | 41.5 | 10313845 | Q4 | TOL Q2 | 3–42 |
2025 · Week 9 |
TOL -1.5 | 45.5 | 0282835 | U | WSU Q1 | 7–28 |
2025 · Week 8 |
TOL -25.5 | 48.5 | 17274855 | Q4 | TOL Q3 | 10–45 |
2025 · Week 7 |
TOL -10.5 | 45.5 | 14283551 | Q4 | BGSU Q3 | 23–28 |
2025 · Week 5 |
TOL -22.5 | 49.5 | 14384148 | U | TOL Q2 | 3–45 |
2025 · Week 4 |
TOL -11.5 | 48.5 | 031927 | U | WMU Q1 Lead lost |
13–14 |
 MORG @  TOL2025 · Week 3 |
TOL -33.5 | 54.5 | 3465360 | Q4 | TOL Q2 | 0–60 |
2025 · Week 2 |
TOL -7.5 | 56.5 | 28385266 | Q4 | TOL Q1 | 21–45 |
2025 · Week 1 |
UK -9.5 | 48.5 | 7121240 | U | TOL Q1 Late cover flip |
16–24 |
LOU
CMU
BALL
M-OH
NIU
WSU
KENT
BGSU
AKR
WMU
WKU
UKWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 38% 5
Q2 31% 4
Q3 15% 2
Q4 15% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 62% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 69% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 25% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.