When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2025 · Stanford · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.
All 12 games
2025 · Stanford · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 14 |
ND -32.5 | 49.5 | 14384869 | Q4 | STAN Q4 Late cover flip |
49–20 |
2025 · Week 13 |
CAL -4.5 | 47.5 | 3242741 | U | STAN Q1 | 10–31 |
2025 · Week 11 |
UNC -8.5 | 41.5 | 361335 | U | STAN Q1 Late cover flip |
15–20 |
2025 · Week 10 |
PITT -13.5 | 52.5 | 17344855 | Q4 | PITT Q3 Late over |
35–20 |
2025 · Week 9 |
MIA -28.5 | 45.5 | 7143549 | Q4 | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
7–42 |
2025 · Week 8 |
FSU -17.5 | 55.5 | 3233033 | U | STAN Q1 | 13–20 |
2025 · Week 7 |
SMU -19.5 | 55.5 | 7243444 | U | SMU Q4 | 10–34 |
2025 · Week 5 |
STAN -3.5 | 49.5 | 17343459 | Q4 | SJSU Q1 Lead lost |
29–30 |
2025 · Week 4 |
UVA -16.5 | 49.5 | 28425868 | Q3 | UVA Q3 | 20–48 |
2025 · Week 3 |
BC -13.5 | 46.5 | 6404750 | Q3 | STAN Q1 | 20–30 |
2025 · Week 2 |
BYU -20.5 | 43.5 | 6142430 | U | BYU Q3 | 3–27 |
2025 · Week 1 |
HAW -1.5 | 50.5 | 17273043 | U | HAW Q3 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–23 |
ND
STAN
CAL
UNC
PITT
MIA
FSU
SMU
SJSU
UVA
BC
BYU
HAWWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 42% 5
Q2 0% 0
Q3 33% 4
Q4 25% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 89% and covered 89% of 9 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 83% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.