When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2025 · South Florida · pick one to list those games
54% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 43% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 15% of games.
All 13 games
2025 · South Florida · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
USF -4 | 52.5 | 10172734 | U | ODU Q1 | 24–10 |
2025 · Week 14 |
USF -28.5 | 57.5 | 14314155 | U | USF Q3 | 3–52 |
2025 · Week 13 |
USF -22.5 | 68.5 | 17274466 | U | USF Q3 | 48–18 |
2025 · Week 12 |
USF -8.5 | 62.5 | 17334079 | Q4 | NAVY Q1 | 38–41 |
2025 · Week 11 |
USF -13.5 | 66.5 | 17556878 | Q3 | USF Q2 | 23–55 |
2025 · Week 9 |
USF -3.5 | 58.5 | 21384865 | Q4 | MEM Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
31–34 |
2025 · Week 8 |
USF -20.5 | 72.5 | 10274461 | U | USF Q4 | 13–48 |
2025 · Week 7 |
UNT -2.5 | 68.5 | 21427799 | Q3 | USF Q2 | 63–36 |
2025 · Week 6 |
USF -28.5 | 54.5 | 23404380 | Q4 | CLT Q1 Late cover flip |
26–54 |
 SCST @  USF2025 · Week 4 |
USF -35.5 | 58.5 | 7286377 | Q3 | USF Q3 | 14–63 |
2025 · Week 3 |
MIA -17.5 | 56.5 | 17344161 | Q4 | MIA Q2 Late over |
12–49 |
2025 · Week 2 |
FLA -18.5 | 58.5 | 3152434 | U | USF Q1 Lead lost |
18–16 |
2025 · Week 1 |
BOIS -5.5 | 60.5 | 7173141 | U | USF Q2 | 7–34 |
ODU
RICE
UAB
NAVY
UTSA
MEM
FAU
UNT
CLT
MIA
FLA
BOISWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 31% 4
Q2 31% 4
Q3 23% 3
Q4 15% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 67% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 85% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 6 | 17% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.