When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2025 · Northwestern · pick one to list those games
46% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 50% of games.
All 13 games
2025 · Northwestern · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
NU -13.5 | 43.5 | 0213441 | U | NU Q2 | 7–34 |
2025 · Week 14 |
ILL -7 | 43.5 | 3242733 | U | Push Late cover flip |
13–20 |
2025 · Week 13 |
NU -4.5 | 41.5 | 10345673 | Q3 | MINN Q2 | 35–38 |
2025 · Week 12 |
MICH -10.5 | 42.5 | 0133046 | Q4 | NU Q4 Lead lost |
24–22 |
2025 · Week 11 |
USC -14.5 | 54.5 | 14354555 | Q4 | USC Q4 Late over |
17–38 |
2025 · Week 9 |
NEB -7.5 | 44.5 | 10133449 | Q4 | NU Q4 Late over |
21–28 |
2025 · Week 8 |
NU -3.5 | 46.5 | 3131919 | U | NU Q2 | 0–19 |
2025 · Week 7 |
PSU -20.5 | 46.5 | 3272743 | U | NU Q1 Lead lost |
22–21 |
2025 · Week 6 |
NU -13.5 | 43.5 | 14254649 | Q3 | NU Q3 | 7–42 |
2025 · Week 5 |
NU -6.5 | 46.5 | 3202331 | U | UCLA Q4 | 14–17 |
2025 · Week 3 |
ORE -24.5 | 50.5 | 7173148 | U | NU Q4 Late cover flip |
34–14 |
 WIU @  NU2025 · Week 2 |
NU -30.5 | 48.5 | 15222849 | Q4 | NU Q4 Late over |
7–42 |
2025 · Week 1 |
TULN -6.5 | 45.5 | 10232626 | U | TULN Q2 | 3–23 |
CMU
ILL
MINN
MICH
USC
NEB
PUR
PSU
ULM
UCLA
ORE
TULNWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 8% 1
Q2 31% 4
Q3 8% 1
Q4 46% 6
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 85% and covered 54% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 50% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.